***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.04.2018.-29.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.8 8.4 8.7 0.2 51.6 52.0 7.8 8.4 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.2 8.3 0.1 50.6 51.9 6.8 8.2 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.1 8.6 0.2 52.8 52.6 9.0 10.0 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.7 6.1 0.3 51.9 53.2 3.4 4.7 5.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 6.8 6.5 6.3 0.3 54.0 54.0 5.8 6.4 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.1 4.3 0.4 54.6 56.5 4.3 5.6 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.6 8.2 8.3 0.1 50.8 51.6 7.0 8.2 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 0.9 0.8 4.1 0.3 51.6 53.6 -0.1 0.7 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 7.4 7.3 6.5 0.3 52.9 53.8 6.2 7.2 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 7.5 7.3 4.9 0.3 52.2 53.6 6.5 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 6.9 6.8 5.5 0.3 53.4 54.0 5.6 6.7 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.9 4.8 0.3 54.8 55.3 4.5 5.8 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.9 4.6 0.5 57.8 57.1 5.5 6.5 7.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.9 6.4 0.3 53.9 53.8 7.1 7.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.4 8.2 7.1 0.2 52.0 53.2 7.4 8.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.9 5.1 0.4 55.7 55.6 6.9 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.7 8.4 8.2 0.1 51.1 52.4 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 5.7 5.6 4.3 0.4 54.9 55.5 4.3 5.4 6.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.0 8.4 0.2 51.7 52.5 6.9 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 2.7 2.5 2.2 0.3 51.8 53.9 1.5 2.5 2.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 7.4 7.2 7.9 0.2 52.5 53.0 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.6 8.0 0.2 53.6 53.2 6.9 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.9 8.2 0.3 53.6 53.5 6.1 7.6 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 7.2 7.0 6.2 0.3 55.8 54.8 5.9 6.8 7.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.8 7.3 0.2 50.2 52.4 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 6.9 7.3 4.3 0.6 60.4 59.1 5.7 6.7 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.1 7.5 8.1 0.2 51.0 52.6 6.6 7.4 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.1 6.3 0.3 52.3 53.4 5.4 6.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 5.0 4.7 3.8 0.4 54.7 55.4 3.9 4.6 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.2 8.4 0.1 50.7 51.7 7.0 8.1 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------