***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.04.2018.-22.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 8.1 8.4 8.9 1.9 80.1 74.2 5.9 7.3 7.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 22 78 100 7.8 8.5 8.6 1.8 78.9 73.5 5.3 6.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 9.2 9.8 8.9 1.8 80.0 74.2 7.8 8.4 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 4.1 4.6 6.0 1.5 76.9 70.8 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 6.8 7.2 6.8 1.7 80.7 73.6 4.1 5.7 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 5.7 6.5 4.5 1.9 84.3 75.9 3.8 4.6 5.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 7.7 8.2 8.5 1.8 79.5 73.3 5.7 6.5 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 0.0 0.8 4.5 2.0 85.9 78.1 -2.1 -1.5 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 7.2 7.9 7.0 1.9 84.2 76.5 5.5 6.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 22 78 100 7.5 8.0 5.4 2.0 84.6 77.5 5.4 6.4 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 7.3 8.0 6.3 1.9 86.1 76.9 4.8 6.3 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 5.8 6.4 5.4 1.9 84.6 77.6 3.6 5.0 5.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 6.6 7.8 5.5 2.1 86.9 78.9 4.9 5.5 6.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 7.8 8.6 7.0 2.0 85.1 77.2 5.4 6.4 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 7.9 8.4 7.3 1.5 78.6 72.6 5.8 6.9 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 7.7 8.2 5.8 1.9 83.7 76.4 5.6 6.6 7.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 7.7 8.1 8.3 1.7 78.6 72.8 5.9 6.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 5.3 6.0 4.9 2.0 83.2 77.9 3.2 4.2 4.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 7.6 8.3 8.6 1.8 80.0 74.4 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 2.4 3.5 3.2 2.2 83.9 78.8 0.2 1.4 2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 19 81 100 7.4 7.8 8.3 1.8 80.6 74.6 5.4 6.6 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.5 8.3 1.7 79.8 73.8 4.8 5.6 6.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 7.3 8.2 8.5 2.0 83.3 76.5 5.4 5.9 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.3 6.9 2.0 84.4 77.0 4.3 5.7 7.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 7.5 8.1 7.9 1.9 79.6 73.4 5.6 6.1 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 6.5 7.1 4.9 2.0 84.8 78.0 4.4 5.2 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 8.3 8.8 8.5 1.9 80.0 74.0 5.3 6.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.6 6.4 1.5 77.6 71.0 4.5 5.4 6.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 22 78 100 4.5 5.3 4.3 2.2 85.0 79.4 2.4 3.0 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 7.5 7.9 8.8 1.8 79.8 73.9 5.8 6.5 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------