***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.04.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.04.2018.-15.04.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.5 10.1 10.5 4.2 95.5 94.2 4.9 6.2 6.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.6 9.7 10.0 4.0 96.1 95.6 4.6 5.7 6.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 8.8 10.6 10.2 3.7 93.9 93.0 6.7 7.9 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 4.2 4.7 6.8 3.0 87.9 86.9 0.1 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 6.3 8.1 8.1 3.4 90.8 89.5 4.0 4.9 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 5.7 6.4 5.1 3.2 86.9 86.9 3.0 4.5 4.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.4 10.0 4.0 95.1 94.8 4.7 6.2 6.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.3 4.9 3.2 89.5 89.2 -2.1 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.3 7.9 3.3 93.2 91.7 4.7 5.4 6.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 7.2 7.8 5.9 3.1 89.7 89.2 4.7 5.8 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 7.3 8.2 7.0 2.9 88.1 87.9 4.4 5.4 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 6.0 6.7 6.0 3.1 88.1 87.9 3.3 4.3 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 7.1 7.5 5.8 2.6 84.0 84.1 3.9 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 7.1 8.7 6.9 2.7 87.9 87.4 5.3 5.9 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 7.8 8.3 7.7 2.5 87.3 84.9 5.3 5.9 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 7.8 8.3 6.5 2.8 86.4 86.1 5.0 6.0 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 7.7 9.2 9.6 3.9 96.0 95.4 4.6 5.9 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 4.8 6.3 5.2 3.0 88.1 87.2 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.3 9.6 9.8 3.9 96.0 95.6 4.4 5.8 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 3.0 3.5 3.9 3.5 89.9 89.2 0.1 0.8 2.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 7.8 9.0 9.3 3.4 92.4 91.4 4.5 5.8 6.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 6.6 8.7 9.4 3.6 95.7 95.3 4.3 5.3 5.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.2 9.1 9.4 3.7 95.9 95.3 4.3 5.2 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 7.1 8.0 7.3 3.0 90.0 89.1 4.6 5.2 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.0 9.7 4.1 93.3 92.6 4.8 6.0 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 6.6 7.0 5.6 3.2 86.7 87.1 4.1 4.8 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.5 10.3 4.3 94.7 93.4 4.1 6.6 7.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 6.3 7.3 7.0 2.7 85.6 84.2 3.3 4.6 5.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 4.0 4.6 4.4 3.1 89.1 88.1 1.9 2.7 3.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.4 9.8 10.3 4.1 95.8 95.4 4.9 6.3 7.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------