***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 48.6 38.8 59.5 92.6 46.2 46.1 35.7 40.8 61.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 43.6 37.5 51.3 89.7 46.4 44.1 27.4 38.4 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 55.2 46.8 58.7 94.2 47.9 47.5 36.3 50.8 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 70.1 66.3 72.5 100.4 50.9 50.3 61.9 66.3 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 57.1 56.6 70.6 103.8 56.3 53.3 37.7 51.6 63.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 55.3 53.8 79.8 108.6 58.5 55.4 42.3 50.1 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 25.2 34.2 49.9 87.2 45.8 42.1 24.4 35.9 45.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 86.6 101.6 81.0 114.9 67.1 60.7 72.8 80.3 101.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 55.7 54.5 71.2 103.1 56.6 53.0 37.6 52.4 64.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 63.7 69.3 81.4 109.2 62.5 57.2 47.8 58.6 71.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 58.0 60.9 71.0 108.8 59.6 56.0 43.6 54.3 64.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 57.5 61.7 72.5 115.3 66.7 59.6 40.3 55.3 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 60.5 65.4 81.1 114.5 65.1 58.5 52.6 57.3 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 51.8 60.3 78.8 100.2 53.5 50.8 50.9 57.6 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 38.2 46.3 65.0 97.9 51.6 47.5 41.7 46.3 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 57.3 57.4 74.3 109.4 58.8 55.3 45.5 53.5 66.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 28.2 36.0 47.8 85.6 44.4 41.5 32.1 37.6 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 65.7 71.3 86.6 111.6 64.6 58.8 49.5 61.0 72.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 49.3 41.5 54.1 92.5 47.6 46.0 33.1 43.3 53.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 56.2 57.9 90.0 114.8 66.1 61.1 43.0 51.7 57.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 47.8 44.9 64.9 97.8 51.3 49.8 39.3 43.9 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 32.8 41.2 52.8 89.9 43.9 43.7 34.8 41.9 49.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 36.0 48.1 58.3 94.9 49.2 47.7 36.2 48.3 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.5 62.7 75.2 103.1 55.7 53.1 47.7 55.0 70.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 36.9 43.1 69.3 95.3 47.7 48.0 38.6 44.0 61.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 51.9 57.6 78.0 117.2 66.5 60.5 42.0 49.1 57.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 34.1 39.1 64.2 93.6 46.3 46.7 34.5 39.6 64.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 56.8 55.2 71.4 102.6 54.9 50.9 34.0 53.4 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 81.3 91.6 88.9 114.9 67.5 60.4 67.9 75.2 89.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 40.9 34.8 53.7 91.3 47.5 45.1 28.9 36.3 53.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------