***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 4.2 3.7 15.1 82.1 51.9 43.6 1.2 2.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.6 13.1 81.0 49.9 42.2 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 7.1 5.4 15.1 86.2 53.3 46.1 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.2 10.5 17.6 89.4 55.2 45.5 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.6 17.2 92.6 57.1 48.0 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.5 10.5 18.3 93.0 57.0 46.1 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 2.2 3.1 12.6 76.7 46.1 39.9 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.8 20.9 19.8 107.4 62.0 51.2 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.6 17.6 90.9 55.1 47.4 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.6 13.3 20.2 98.3 57.1 49.0 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.7 16.6 97.4 57.1 48.5 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.9 12.4 16.4 101.7 60.9 48.8 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.6 17.5 94.7 58.4 46.1 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 10.2 20.0 91.1 52.3 45.1 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.5 8.9 14.9 82.0 54.6 41.1 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 2.9 8.2 16.8 94.5 58.4 46.7 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 1.7 3.6 12.9 80.7 50.5 41.0 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.9 14.7 21.6 97.9 56.3 48.9 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.2 13.9 85.4 52.6 44.1 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.7 10.8 22.7 109.9 62.0 52.8 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.6 5.2 16.2 87.7 53.5 46.4 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.9 14.6 89.5 53.8 44.0 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.5 15.0 88.6 53.3 45.8 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.8 19.1 92.9 53.7 46.9 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 17.0 83.6 53.7 43.6 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 2.9 9.2 17.4 104.0 62.7 48.1 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 3.0 6.4 16.1 82.4 52.7 43.1 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.9 16.9 88.5 56.3 44.7 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.3 19.6 21.9 103.0 59.2 50.5 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.1 4.9 13.7 82.2 51.6 43.1 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------