***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 14.8 13.0 15.9 96.7 57.4 48.8 5.8 12.7 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.7 8.1 13.7 94.3 59.7 46.5 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.8 15.8 101.1 62.0 50.6 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 8.3 12.5 15.8 81.6 49.9 44.0 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.3 8.1 16.6 91.1 54.8 48.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 4.6 7.7 16.0 79.2 44.4 42.4 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.5 10.3 13.4 92.6 58.8 46.0 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 14.9 16.8 89.3 52.1 47.4 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.2 17.5 94.7 56.7 49.3 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 7.2 18.2 90.6 53.0 47.8 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.2 7.3 15.3 89.3 54.0 48.1 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.1 8.6 15.2 89.9 53.4 47.2 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.9 17.6 89.5 50.7 47.0 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 16.7 20.1 96.1 59.8 48.4 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.3 12.7 69.0 46.5 39.9 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.6 8.5 15.9 86.5 52.1 46.4 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.0 12.6 89.0 56.0 43.5 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 5.2 12.6 19.8 95.4 58.2 49.2 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 12.3 14.7 98.4 61.4 48.3 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.4 11.1 20.1 95.6 57.2 49.4 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.0 16.6 97.4 57.7 50.1 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.0 11.6 14.0 92.3 57.8 45.3 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.2 16.2 102.5 63.3 49.7 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.3 18.6 97.8 59.6 50.1 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.8 8.2 17.6 92.9 55.6 47.4 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.1 14.9 82.2 48.2 44.7 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.7 12.4 17.0 95.3 57.1 48.0 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.1 14.3 75.2 47.1 41.8 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 15.1 20.1 97.1 58.6 49.7 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 4.0 11.6 14.5 96.7 59.8 47.9 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------