***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 8.2 14.2 12.1 79.4 53.0 44.4 7.5 14.1 15.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.9 11.6 83.4 50.8 44.4 6.2 8.9 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 8.3 15.5 12.4 81.0 52.0 44.0 7.1 13.1 22.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 9.9 15.8 13.1 81.6 56.7 42.6 11.9 15.4 16.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.7 14.1 13.1 84.1 53.8 44.4 7.2 12.4 21.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 12.5 15.8 90.6 53.4 45.9 8.1 11.9 16.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.3 11.4 83.0 53.5 44.1 5.0 8.4 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 18.5 25.4 14.1 88.6 53.4 45.2 22.5 25.3 28.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 8.4 15.8 14.0 86.5 56.2 46.0 6.9 14.1 22.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.7 16.7 14.6 86.4 53.2 45.4 10.5 16.5 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 8.5 14.5 13.4 86.7 51.9 45.2 9.8 13.7 17.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.7 14.8 12.8 87.2 52.3 43.9 9.5 14.5 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 10.0 17.0 14.4 88.4 52.9 45.2 8.3 16.8 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.6 18.0 94.4 58.6 48.7 10.2 17.2 24.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.8 12.5 84.3 58.3 42.6 5.2 9.6 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 8.2 16.0 14.4 90.8 55.0 45.3 10.0 15.8 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 10.0 10.0 11.0 80.8 53.0 44.7 3.4 8.6 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 11.1 17.4 16.0 89.7 53.7 46.6 9.5 17.0 20.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.6 11.9 82.4 50.1 44.3 6.8 9.6 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 9.2 15.1 16.7 92.7 54.4 46.6 11.4 14.6 17.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 8.6 16.4 13.5 84.8 55.1 45.5 6.1 13.6 20.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.5 11.4 79.3 52.2 43.8 5.3 8.5 13.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.9 12.2 12.8 83.2 51.3 44.8 6.0 11.9 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.2 18.3 15.5 88.1 53.6 46.4 8.4 16.2 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.1 14.4 13.3 77.0 50.6 42.0 6.4 14.0 20.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.3 8.9 13.1 84.7 49.1 41.9 5.8 9.6 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 6.4 12.8 12.7 77.0 50.7 43.0 6.5 12.6 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.9 12.7 82.2 56.2 41.8 4.8 9.4 14.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 13.9 21.7 17.4 95.8 56.3 47.9 14.5 20.9 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.1 11.4 80.2 51.7 42.8 4.4 8.8 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------