***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 12.4 16.8 16.3 115.9 68.4 61.0 5.8 10.6 16.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 10.2 11.1 13.0 102.3 61.4 55.7 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 13.1 17.5 15.4 111.5 67.7 60.2 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 29.2 31.7 26.0 152.1 75.8 69.9 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 25.8 34.2 23.7 151.5 78.4 70.7 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 20.7 30.7 29.7 183.7 86.3 80.9 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 7.6 12.9 12.6 99.4 61.6 54.9 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 27.4 33.0 30.2 175.4 85.6 77.7 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 19.6 24.3 22.2 147.1 78.0 70.1 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 25.0 33.8 28.4 166.9 83.8 75.5 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 22.7 28.4 25.7 164.4 81.3 73.4 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 20.6 28.6 28.1 185.0 85.7 78.8 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 21 79 100 23.3 30.5 31.6 192.0 87.9 80.1 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 21.7 25.2 20.7 124.1 70.5 63.9 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 20.7 23.7 24.9 166.1 79.3 72.4 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 22.3 25.8 27.1 172.1 82.6 75.8 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 11.3 11.4 11.4 93.4 56.4 52.6 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 16 84 100 20.4 24.5 29.2 172.5 83.6 79.0 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 15.5 13.7 106.0 63.2 56.8 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 18.3 27.8 30.4 162.7 83.9 78.7 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 13.2 16.9 18.6 124.8 70.2 64.1 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 12.6 12.4 12.8 99.4 59.7 55.1 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.1 19.2 14.4 107.6 63.7 57.9 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 21.3 22.8 22.1 140.6 74.2 69.1 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 19.3 21.4 21.4 132.4 73.5 64.9 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 22.2 32.3 32.6 201.5 90.0 82.2 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 20.1 21.7 18.5 125.1 71.5 62.6 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 24.4 30.1 27.5 172.2 80.8 74.4 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 32.5 41.0 29.5 171.0 85.5 79.2 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 11.2 12.1 14.1 109.2 66.0 58.3 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------