***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 19.6 20.0 19.0 1.5 78.4 69.5 18.4 19.0 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.6 19.3 1.9 84.5 74.3 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.8 20.0 19.1 1.4 76.6 67.4 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.3 15.9 0.9 68.2 61.3 11.6 11.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 18.3 19.7 16.6 0.5 60.8 56.8 18.8 19.5 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 16.8 18.4 14.4 0.3 56.7 54.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 19.5 20.2 19.2 1.9 83.6 74.4 17.9 18.6 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.9 14.5 0.1 52.8 51.7 6.2 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.2 17.2 0.6 61.7 57.7 18.0 19.0 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 17.8 19.1 15.6 0.3 56.4 54.6 18.3 18.9 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 17.9 19.5 16.5 0.5 59.2 55.9 18.4 19.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 16.9 18.7 15.6 0.4 57.9 55.0 17.6 18.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 18.1 19.6 15.5 0.4 57.8 54.9 18.7 19.3 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.2 19.1 16.8 0.4 56.4 54.9 18.1 18.9 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 19.6 20.0 17.8 1.4 78.9 68.1 18.4 19.0 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 18.5 20.0 16.0 0.5 60.1 56.6 18.8 19.8 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 19.1 19.7 19.0 2.0 83.4 74.6 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 18.6 18.5 14.8 0.1 53.4 51.8 17.6 18.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 19.4 20.1 19.2 1.8 82.1 72.5 17.8 18.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.0 12.1 -0.2 47.3 47.5 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 19.8 19.5 18.1 0.7 64.3 59.4 18.4 19.0 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 19.6 20.0 18.6 1.5 77.8 69.4 17.9 18.6 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 19.7 20.1 19.0 1.5 76.8 68.9 18.3 18.7 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 18.9 18.8 16.8 0.4 59.2 55.9 17.9 18.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 19.7 19.7 17.1 0.9 69.0 62.1 18.1 19.1 19.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 17.5 19.0 14.9 0.7 63.5 58.6 17.9 18.6 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 19.6 19.6 18.1 1.2 73.7 66.1 18.1 19.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 19.5 19.6 16.6 1.0 70.4 62.9 18.8 19.1 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 12.2 13.5 13.8 -0.1 50.3 49.6 12.4 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 19.6 20.3 19.2 1.8 82.8 73.1 17.7 18.7 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------