***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 22.8 23.2 20.1 1.5 66.8 62.1 21.6 22.4 23.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 23.6 23.8 20.2 1.9 70.3 66.4 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 23.0 23.3 20.2 1.5 65.5 61.5 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 15.0 15.4 17.6 1.1 61.8 57.8 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.2 17.8 0.7 56.5 54.4 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 20.5 20.0 15.8 0.7 53.4 53.9 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 22.8 23.4 20.2 1.9 71.5 66.2 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 9.5 9.2 16.0 0.4 54.0 52.4 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 21.9 22.1 18.1 0.7 57.3 54.8 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 21.8 22.0 16.9 0.6 55.2 53.6 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 21.8 21.6 17.6 0.7 55.6 54.4 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 21.0 20.7 17.2 0.7 55.6 54.1 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 21.6 21.0 16.5 0.6 54.6 53.4 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.9 17.8 0.6 57.0 55.3 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 23.2 23.0 18.9 1.6 69.5 62.6 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 22.2 21.7 17.3 0.8 55.5 54.9 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 22.9 23.3 20.0 1.9 71.1 66.9 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 21.4 21.3 16.3 0.4 53.8 52.7 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 23.2 23.4 20.2 1.8 68.6 65.0 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.2 15.7 13.4 0.0 50.1 49.5 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.5 19.1 0.9 59.8 56.5 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 23.5 23.9 19.6 1.6 67.6 64.4 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 23.0 23.1 20.0 1.5 66.0 62.2 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 22.1 22.4 17.9 0.7 57.7 55.2 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 22.6 22.7 18.1 1.1 62.2 58.3 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 20.7 20.3 16.6 1.1 58.3 57.1 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.6 19.1 1.3 64.5 60.5 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 22.3 22.2 18.0 1.3 63.4 59.1 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.8 15.2 0.2 52.4 51.3 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 23.3 23.6 20.2 1.8 69.0 65.3 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------