***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 21.7 21.6 19.1 1.4 70.6 62.0 18.5 19.8 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 21.8 22.7 19.4 1.9 76.3 64.8 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 21.8 21.1 19.4 1.4 69.3 61.5 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 10.3 13.6 16.7 1.1 66.2 59.3 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 18.7 20.2 16.9 0.7 59.8 55.8 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 16.7 19.8 15.1 0.9 63.1 56.8 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 21.4 21.9 19.3 1.8 75.8 64.3 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.9 15.3 0.6 56.3 54.5 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 18.2 20.2 17.2 0.7 59.7 55.7 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 18.1 19.6 16.0 0.6 57.3 54.9 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 18.2 19.8 16.8 0.7 60.1 55.9 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 19.4 19.7 16.4 0.8 59.7 56.1 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 18.1 21.0 15.6 0.7 61.8 55.5 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 18.3 20.4 16.9 0.5 56.0 54.4 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 21.3 22.1 18.1 1.8 75.7 65.0 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 18.7 21.1 16.4 0.9 63.0 56.8 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 21.3 22.0 19.2 1.9 76.6 64.6 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 17.4 18.8 15.5 0.4 54.8 53.3 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 21.6 22.3 19.4 1.8 73.8 64.0 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 12.6 14.4 12.6 0.2 51.5 51.4 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 18.3 20.2 18.1 0.8 61.4 56.9 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 22.2 21.6 18.8 1.5 69.7 62.3 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 22.2 21.3 19.2 1.5 69.2 61.8 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 17.8 19.5 17.0 0.6 58.0 55.1 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 17.9 20.7 17.1 1.0 64.2 58.2 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 19.5 20.9 15.9 1.2 68.8 59.3 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 17.9 20.4 18.2 1.2 67.1 60.0 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 21.4 21.7 17.2 1.4 69.7 61.4 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 12.4 14.2 14.4 0.2 52.4 51.9 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 21.7 22.1 19.4 1.8 74.6 64.3 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------