***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 16.2 18.1 18.6 1.1 61.6 58.9 16.5 18.0 18.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 18.3 18.3 18.7 1.4 64.5 60.8 16.2 17.6 18.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 15.9 18.4 18.6 0.9 59.1 57.6 16.4 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 8.4 10.1 15.3 0.4 54.9 53.9 8.7 9.8 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 15.6 17.6 16.1 0.1 49.9 50.8 16.5 17.6 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 14.8 15.4 13.7 -0.3 45.3 46.9 14.9 16.3 17.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 18.2 18.0 18.7 1.4 65.6 60.7 15.6 17.4 18.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 3.4 4.4 13.9 -0.5 43.5 46.9 3.6 5.1 5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 15.2 17.5 16.9 0.1 49.8 51.2 16.2 17.5 18.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 15.5 17.5 15.1 -0.2 46.3 48.8 16.0 17.6 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.3 16.2 -0.1 47.9 49.7 16.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 14.5 16.3 15.0 -0.2 46.0 48.9 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 15.8 17.4 15.2 -0.1 47.3 49.0 16.7 17.6 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 15.8 18.0 16.4 -0.2 48.1 49.7 16.5 18.1 18.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 18.7 17.8 17.5 0.9 62.0 57.4 16.0 17.2 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 15.9 17.9 15.6 0.0 49.1 49.7 16.8 18.0 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 15.5 17.4 18.4 1.4 65.1 60.8 15.8 16.9 17.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 15.2 17.0 14.2 -0.5 43.2 47.0 15.5 17.3 18.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 15.8 18.1 18.7 1.3 63.0 60.1 15.7 17.6 18.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.4 10.9 11.6 -0.8 41.2 44.7 9.7 11.7 12.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 15.5 17.7 17.7 0.2 52.0 52.3 16.7 17.7 18.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.6 17.8 18.1 1.0 61.0 57.9 16.5 16.9 18.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 15.6 18.3 18.6 1.0 60.0 58.5 16.6 17.6 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 15.4 17.7 16.4 -0.1 47.2 49.9 16.3 17.8 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.6 17.6 16.8 0.5 54.9 54.3 15.6 17.2 18.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 15.2 16.8 14.4 0.2 51.0 52.1 15.6 16.8 17.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 15.5 17.7 17.7 0.8 58.0 56.6 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 15.8 17.6 16.1 0.5 55.6 54.1 15.9 17.3 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.4 13.3 -0.7 41.7 45.8 10.4 12.2 12.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.7 18.1 18.7 1.3 62.6 60.3 15.3 17.6 18.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------