***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-14.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 17.5 17.9 18.2 2.0 72.7 70.5 14.3 16.1 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 18.1 18.5 18.6 2.5 77.5 75.3 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 18.3 17.7 18.1 1.7 68.4 67.2 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.1 11.1 14.1 0.9 61.5 59.9 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 17.8 17.9 15.4 0.7 58.3 57.2 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 17.4 17.4 12.8 0.1 52.3 52.2 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 17.8 19.1 18.6 2.7 79.5 76.4 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 87 13 100 5.5 5.3 12.8 0.0 52.6 50.9 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 17.3 17.3 16.5 0.8 59.6 58.3 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 17.2 17.2 14.3 0.4 56.0 54.4 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 17.8 18.0 15.6 0.5 56.7 55.6 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 87 13 100 16.8 17.0 13.9 0.3 55.2 53.7 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 18.2 18.1 14.8 0.3 55.2 54.3 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.2 15.7 16.1 0.5 57.8 55.7 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 18.2 18.0 16.8 1.2 65.2 63.6 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 18.2 18.2 14.8 0.4 56.2 55.1 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 17.0 18.2 18.3 2.7 79.5 76.4 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 16.4 16.0 13.3 0.1 53.6 51.3 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 18.1 17.3 18.4 2.3 74.1 73.0 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 12.1 11.9 10.8 -0.2 51.4 48.6 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.5 17.3 0.9 61.4 59.5 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.0 17.8 2.0 72.2 70.4 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 18.3 17.4 18.2 1.9 70.6 69.9 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.1 16.0 0.6 58.0 56.0 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 18.2 17.5 16.4 1.2 63.3 62.8 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 16.7 16.8 12.7 0.2 52.6 52.9 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 18.2 17.5 17.4 1.7 68.6 67.6 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 17.8 17.9 15.1 0.8 61.0 59.3 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 87 13 100 11.1 10.9 12.5 0.0 51.8 49.9 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 17.8 17.5 18.5 2.4 75.4 73.8 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------