***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.7 9.0 1.0 75.7 67.5 7.2 7.9 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 8.2 8.5 8.7 1.1 77.1 69.1 6.1 7.6 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 10.0 10.1 9.0 1.0 73.9 68.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 4.4 4.3 6.0 0.7 68.4 64.0 2.9 3.9 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 6.5 6.9 6.4 0.6 66.2 61.8 5.3 6.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 5.7 5.9 4.2 0.7 69.7 65.2 4.2 4.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.6 8.8 1.2 79.5 70.9 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.1 0.4 3.9 0.5 62.9 60.7 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.4 7.6 6.6 0.7 69.6 64.8 5.7 6.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 7.0 7.5 4.9 0.6 66.1 62.4 5.9 6.8 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.8 7.1 5.8 0.6 66.8 63.6 5.8 6.6 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.6 4.8 0.6 64.1 62.7 4.3 5.0 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.4 4.6 0.6 64.1 63.2 5.4 6.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 8.0 8.0 6.5 0.7 69.8 64.6 6.6 7.5 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 8.2 8.6 7.6 1.1 80.2 72.7 6.8 7.6 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 7.4 8.0 5.3 0.7 66.3 64.0 6.4 7.1 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.2 8.5 8.4 1.0 76.2 68.1 6.9 7.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.3 4.3 0.6 65.3 61.3 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.5 8.7 1.1 77.5 69.5 6.2 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 2.1 2.2 2.2 0.4 59.2 57.3 1.6 1.8 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 7.6 7.8 8.0 0.7 69.0 63.6 6.1 6.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 7.4 7.6 8.3 1.0 76.3 68.1 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 7.7 8.1 8.5 1.1 78.4 70.6 5.9 7.0 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.3 6.4 0.8 69.9 64.7 6.0 6.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.6 7.9 7.6 0.7 67.8 62.2 6.3 7.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 6.5 6.3 4.2 0.7 65.8 64.1 5.3 6.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 8.6 8.9 8.4 0.9 72.3 65.3 6.1 7.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 6.3 6.4 6.4 0.8 71.9 67.1 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.6 3.5 0.6 63.6 60.4 3.3 4.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.8 8.9 1.1 77.5 69.8 6.4 7.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------