***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2019.-05.05.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.7 9.6 0.5 61.0 55.3 8.8 10.1 10.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 11.0 9.5 0.6 61.7 58.2 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.5 9.8 0.6 62.6 57.2 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.4 6.4 6.9 0.4 60.0 53.7 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 6.4 8.4 6.9 0.2 55.3 51.9 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 5.3 7.0 5.1 0.4 56.2 54.4 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.9 9.6 0.7 63.3 57.9 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.5 1.8 4.7 0.1 53.2 51.7 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.4 7.2 0.3 55.9 52.9 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.2 5.6 0.2 55.0 52.4 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.4 8.4 6.2 0.3 55.9 52.3 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.6 6.8 5.5 0.2 54.3 52.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.8 7.9 5.1 0.2 50.9 51.7 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.4 7.2 0.4 56.6 54.8 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.1 8.3 0.6 63.0 56.1 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.8 9.4 5.8 0.3 54.8 52.7 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.7 9.3 0.6 62.0 57.6 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.3 6.6 5.0 0.3 56.6 53.9 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.9 10.7 9.5 0.7 62.5 58.7 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.4 3.4 2.7 0.1 50.3 51.0 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.9 8.6 0.3 57.9 53.7 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.8 9.1 0.6 63.5 58.5 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.2 10.4 9.4 0.7 64.6 59.5 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.8 9.0 7.0 0.4 59.6 55.4 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.2 8.0 0.3 57.1 52.3 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.9 4.9 0.4 55.7 54.7 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.6 8.9 0.4 58.1 53.8 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.3 7.3 0.5 61.2 55.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 4.6 6.5 4.3 0.3 54.8 53.2 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 10.3 11.1 9.7 0.7 62.6 57.9 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------