***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2019.-28.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.9 9.0 0.7 61.1 58.6 7.7 8.1 9.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.2 8.9 0.9 66.3 61.2 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.1 10.6 9.1 0.7 62.4 60.2 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.8 6.1 0.4 56.4 54.9 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 4.9 6.4 6.1 0.2 51.7 52.3 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.7 6.0 4.2 0.4 57.5 55.2 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.3 9.0 1.0 68.4 62.3 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -0.9 0.8 4.0 0.2 51.4 50.7 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.5 6.4 0.3 54.1 53.9 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.0 7.3 4.9 0.2 52.5 52.2 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 5.4 6.9 5.4 0.2 51.8 51.7 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.2 5.2 4.7 0.2 53.2 52.1 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.1 6.4 4.3 0.2 53.4 52.1 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.3 6.5 0.4 57.5 55.7 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.3 8.5 7.5 0.7 63.1 59.9 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 6.1 7.7 5.0 0.2 53.2 52.3 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.3 8.8 0.9 66.1 61.2 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 5.1 4.2 0.3 52.2 52.7 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 9.3 8.9 0.9 66.1 61.2 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 1.2 2.2 2.0 0.0 49.6 49.3 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.0 7.9 0.4 56.1 55.3 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.9 8.4 8.5 0.8 64.6 60.6 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 8.0 8.4 8.7 0.8 65.8 61.5 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.9 6.3 0.5 56.7 56.3 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.5 7.3 0.3 54.9 54.2 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.9 4.3 0.5 59.0 56.7 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 8.5 8.7 8.3 0.6 59.4 57.0 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.6 6.5 0.5 60.1 57.2 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.2 4.5 3.6 0.2 50.3 51.3 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.6 9.9 9.1 0.9 66.0 61.5 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------