***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2019.-21.04.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.2 8.3 0.5 56.9 55.6 6.0 6.9 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.3 5.7 7.9 0.4 54.0 54.8 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 8.4 8.4 8.3 0.4 56.3 55.4 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.1 5.3 0.1 50.8 51.8 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.3 4.8 5.9 0.1 48.2 51.4 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.4 3.4 0.2 52.4 53.1 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.4 8.1 0.6 58.5 56.5 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 -1.4 -1.7 3.3 0.2 50.0 52.3 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.2 6.0 0.3 52.3 54.2 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 6.4 6.1 4.3 0.2 49.9 52.7 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 6.3 6.2 5.3 0.3 52.5 54.2 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 4.7 4.3 4.3 0.2 50.7 52.8 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 5.7 5.2 4.0 0.1 48.4 51.5 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.0 5.6 0.1 47.5 51.5 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 5.5 7.2 6.9 0.6 63.5 58.5 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.5 4.7 0.2 49.8 52.5 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 7.6 0.4 52.6 54.2 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 4.1 3.6 3.6 0.0 46.4 50.4 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 5.8 7.9 0.4 54.9 55.5 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 1.4 0.8 1.7 0.0 45.4 49.1 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.4 7.3 0.2 51.6 52.9 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.5 7.6 0.3 53.3 54.9 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.2 7.7 0.5 57.3 56.7 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.2 5.7 0.1 48.7 52.1 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.3 7.0 0.1 52.4 52.0 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 5.4 5.2 3.5 0.1 51.9 51.7 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.6 7.7 0.3 54.9 53.8 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.4 5.7 0.3 54.0 53.4 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 2.8 2.2 2.8 0.1 45.4 50.7 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.3 8.2 0.5 56.9 56.1 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------