***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 9999.0 0.0 48.5 76.1 32.9 33.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 20.8 24.0 47.5 76.0 25.1 32.6 27.4 38.4 50.0 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 35.3 35.1 47.5 75.1 29.2 32.5 36.3 50.8 59.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 51.1 62.1 57.5 79.5 34.4 37.2 61.9 66.3 72.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 36.0 42.5 58.4 82.3 39.6 38.9 37.7 51.6 63.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 38.9 50.2 77.3 92.1 51.5 44.5 42.3 50.1 56.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 21.5 17.6 48.3 77.4 26.4 33.2 24.4 35.9 45.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 73.7 75.9 65.6 87.9 40.7 42.3 72.8 80.3 101.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 36.0 47.0 57.6 82.9 38.6 38.9 37.6 52.4 64.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 44.0 52.6 65.8 86.3 39.6 41.3 47.8 58.6 71.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 40.0 49.4 56.6 84.9 42.7 41.2 43.6 54.3 64.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 42.6 50.6 57.1 88.2 42.3 43.4 40.3 55.3 61.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 46.3 54.3 65.8 89.0 43.3 43.4 52.6 57.3 65.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 50.0 50.2 59.8 78.6 29.4 33.8 50.9 57.6 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 36.8 44.7 54.0 80.5 36.6 37.6 41.7 46.3 53.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 40.6 50.7 61.0 86.6 43.2 42.0 45.5 53.5 66.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 26.6 30.2 47.6 78.2 25.0 33.3 32.1 37.6 41.8 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 44.6 54.5 72.6 86.4 38.4 41.0 49.5 61.0 72.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 76 24 0 100 28.3 29.8 46.6 74.4 24.3 31.9 33.1 43.3 53.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 41.7 44.4 81.6 85.8 36.2 40.2 43.0 51.7 57.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 31.5 39.3 50.9 78.4 33.8 35.6 39.3 43.9 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 30.3 31.3 46.6 74.1 22.3 31.1 34.8 41.9 49.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 70 30 0 100 31.8 30.9 47.6 74.0 25.2 32.1 36.2 48.3 57.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 43.1 48.4 60.9 81.6 34.3 37.0 47.7 55.0 70.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 34.8 37.1 57.9 77.5 31.6 33.6 38.6 44.0 61.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 35.1 46.0 61.2 88.4 42.3 43.5 42.0 49.1 57.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 32.6 33.7 55.0 76.6 30.7 32.8 34.5 39.6 64.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 35.8 39.6 57.0 81.7 38.0 38.4 34.0 53.4 61.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 56.6 72.3 75.4 85.9 37.6 40.3 67.9 75.2 89.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 23.8 25.8 47.5 75.6 27.0 32.5 28.9 36.3 53.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------