***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 0.0 11.0 81.9 52.1 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.0 10.9 86.3 51.8 45.9 1.4 4.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.0 5.3 10.3 78.5 52.9 44.6 2.9 4.4 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 10.5 13.4 79.7 55.3 43.8 7.5 9.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.7 6.2 12.6 77.7 53.6 43.7 4.3 5.9 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 4.7 10.6 19.2 96.0 59.6 49.1 4.2 8.7 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.2 11.2 88.5 52.4 46.1 1.5 4.1 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 11.3 17.2 13.6 80.3 48.6 42.9 12.8 17.6 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 4.0 6.6 11.8 74.5 50.5 43.1 5.2 6.4 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.0 11.4 13.8 79.0 50.3 43.3 3.7 11.3 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.1 11.9 78.6 52.9 42.8 3.7 6.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.7 8.0 11.6 80.4 51.4 43.8 3.7 7.1 15.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.1 8.6 15.1 87.2 54.6 45.4 6.1 8.0 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.1 9.5 12.8 78.6 49.7 43.9 6.0 9.5 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 3.5 9.0 12.5 78.1 55.7 44.2 4.5 8.3 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.3 13.6 82.9 54.5 44.2 3.5 5.6 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.7 11.0 88.4 52.4 46.2 1.6 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.1 12.4 15.8 82.5 49.7 44.8 3.2 12.5 19.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.5 5.8 10.5 82.5 50.5 45.4 2.3 5.7 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.4 8.6 18.6 85.6 46.4 44.6 6.5 9.4 11.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.1 10.8 76.1 50.2 42.8 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.9 10.7 82.7 52.0 45.4 2.6 5.3 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.8 6.7 10.3 77.5 49.9 44.5 2.9 6.7 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 9.5 7.4 12.8 78.0 51.2 44.4 4.7 7.1 13.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.6 8.2 13.4 80.5 52.1 42.7 1.4 7.8 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.1 13.4 84.5 48.6 44.8 3.3 7.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 2.8 6.1 12.9 82.8 52.0 43.8 2.6 5.9 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.1 7.3 13.5 81.0 58.3 44.8 4.1 5.8 8.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.7 17.7 16.7 84.6 48.3 45.0 9.1 18.0 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.1 10.8 85.2 52.8 46.3 1.3 4.3 6.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------