***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 15.6 100.0 58.5 49.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.8 14.7 91.4 55.8 48.1 2.2 5.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.4 14.6 92.0 55.4 47.2 4.9 10.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.2 17.7 98.6 58.2 48.0 6.4 12.5 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.3 17.9 103.0 59.0 50.7 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.6 12.7 22.9 101.7 59.8 51.0 4.2 8.0 14.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.6 8.3 15.0 93.9 56.5 48.2 3.9 6.9 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.2 19.8 20.7 112.3 63.2 54.1 10.0 14.5 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 9.7 11.1 17.9 105.3 60.7 51.9 2.6 7.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.1 20.2 107.8 61.5 52.7 5.5 6.8 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.9 17.4 106.0 58.4 52.7 3.4 5.6 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.2 18.1 111.3 61.8 54.1 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.9 12.0 20.5 107.2 61.9 53.1 4.4 7.8 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.6 10.7 17.8 92.1 53.4 46.7 9.0 9.9 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.3 16.1 98.3 59.4 47.9 2.6 4.6 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.0 18.8 106.4 61.8 52.9 3.9 7.7 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 8.8 14.5 93.4 55.7 48.4 4.4 8.1 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.9 14.9 22.1 105.4 63.5 50.9 4.7 10.8 15.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.9 7.0 14.3 88.5 54.8 47.4 3.9 6.6 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 12.6 25.9 111.6 64.6 53.0 6.1 9.0 13.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.4 15.8 101.2 59.3 49.7 3.3 8.9 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.4 14.2 90.7 55.4 47.6 5.0 9.4 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.8 7.1 14.3 86.2 55.3 46.1 2.8 7.0 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 12.0 11.0 18.2 96.5 56.3 48.2 6.6 9.5 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.2 18.0 98.9 58.1 48.6 5.3 6.6 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.1 19.3 110.1 62.3 53.4 3.1 7.6 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.9 13.2 17.3 98.7 58.5 48.7 2.8 7.7 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.9 6.4 17.3 99.8 59.3 48.9 2.3 5.2 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.6 23.1 106.9 62.0 51.3 7.3 11.4 17.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.4 14.8 91.6 55.9 47.6 3.2 8.1 14.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------