***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 11.3 59.0 36.7 33.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 4.1 3.3 10.8 60.5 30.3 32.1 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.4 6.3 11.1 59.8 31.6 32.6 6.6 11.1 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 14.9 17.3 13.5 67.9 41.3 38.3 13.7 19.6 25.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 8.4 9.9 13.6 68.0 37.8 37.2 9.6 11.7 21.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.3 9.2 17.3 85.2 47.1 45.9 7.8 12.0 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.9 2.9 11.0 61.5 31.5 31.9 3.0 5.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.1 17.2 14.5 67.9 36.0 36.0 16.3 20.6 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 14.2 9.1 13.0 66.3 38.9 35.8 7.8 11.1 17.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 9.8 10.5 14.7 67.6 36.6 35.4 10.2 13.9 23.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 7.6 11.2 13.3 69.4 38.9 37.7 10.4 14.7 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.6 11.3 13.0 70.0 39.7 39.2 9.4 12.1 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 8.5 13.7 14.4 74.0 41.2 41.3 11.6 15.2 20.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 72 28 0 100 8.0 8.5 13.0 60.2 30.0 29.8 11.8 20.3 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 8.0 13.5 13.6 74.8 48.9 43.5 5.9 13.9 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 8.4 13.2 14.1 73.0 43.2 40.7 10.0 15.4 19.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.9 3.8 10.7 60.4 29.1 31.9 4.9 9.6 15.2 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 8.7 10.2 15.3 65.1 32.4 33.6 10.4 14.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 6.3 6.8 10.6 59.3 32.5 32.2 7.0 12.9 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 7.6 6.0 15.9 60.3 29.6 31.5 6.7 11.0 16.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.8 8.3 11.9 61.6 34.9 33.6 7.7 12.5 16.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 4.2 3.0 10.4 56.5 29.1 30.2 4.4 10.9 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.8 11.3 10.9 59.0 34.2 32.5 10.5 12.9 21.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.8 10.0 13.4 64.3 32.6 33.5 10.3 15.0 17.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 15.9 9.8 13.1 61.5 37.3 34.1 9.1 13.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 7.9 12.1 13.9 74.1 44.9 40.9 8.8 14.1 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 15.0 7.8 12.5 60.6 37.4 33.7 7.0 11.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 7.4 11.9 13.7 72.9 47.2 41.7 7.0 13.1 21.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 12.0 13.4 15.4 62.1 30.8 31.7 14.3 18.5 26.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.8 3.4 11.0 61.0 33.7 33.2 3.2 9.9 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------