***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 -0.5 37.7 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.5 -0.4 43.7 43.0 17.9 18.8 19.7 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 18.0 18.7 16.8 -0.4 41.3 42.7 18.3 19.0 19.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 10.4 11.5 14.8 -0.8 32.7 36.5 11.6 11.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 18.1 19.0 15.4 -0.7 38.3 39.9 18.8 19.5 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 16.6 17.7 13.4 -0.8 34.6 38.4 17.7 18.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 17.6 18.2 16.4 -0.5 41.7 42.1 17.9 18.6 19.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.7 14.0 -0.4 44.5 44.5 6.2 6.8 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 17.6 18.6 15.9 -0.6 40.0 41.2 18.0 19.0 19.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 17.8 18.8 14.8 -0.5 42.0 43.1 18.3 18.9 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 17.8 18.8 15.1 -0.6 40.0 40.8 18.4 19.1 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 16.9 17.9 14.7 -0.5 43.5 42.6 17.6 18.2 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 18.0 18.8 14.3 -0.7 38.9 40.5 18.7 19.3 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 17.9 18.9 15.8 -0.2 47.8 46.8 18.1 18.9 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 18.0 18.3 15.3 -1.0 29.1 33.7 18.4 19.0 19.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 18.3 19.0 14.7 -0.7 37.0 39.5 18.8 19.8 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 17.1 17.9 16.2 -0.4 44.2 43.4 17.4 18.2 19.0 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 17.3 18.1 14.2 -0.3 43.6 45.8 17.6 18.4 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 17.6 18.3 16.7 -0.4 44.2 44.1 17.8 18.6 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 12.0 13.7 12.1 -0.1 50.8 48.9 12.6 13.6 14.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 17.9 18.7 16.5 -0.5 40.9 41.1 18.4 19.0 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 17.7 18.5 16.4 -0.3 46.8 45.5 17.9 18.6 19.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 17.8 18.6 16.7 -0.3 45.9 45.3 18.3 18.7 19.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 17.7 18.4 15.7 -0.3 42.7 45.0 17.9 18.7 19.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 17.9 18.2 15.3 -0.6 36.2 39.4 18.1 19.1 19.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 17.2 18.1 13.9 -0.6 38.4 40.6 17.9 18.6 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 17.7 18.3 16.0 -0.5 37.9 40.9 18.1 19.0 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 18.2 18.8 15.1 -1.0 30.8 35.3 18.8 19.1 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.1 13.3 13.3 -0.2 47.8 47.8 12.4 13.4 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 17.4 18.4 16.6 -0.4 42.2 42.6 17.7 18.7 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------