***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9999.0 0.0 18.8 -0.1 53.8 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 23.0 22.8 18.5 -0.1 51.3 51.9 20.6 22.7 23.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 23.0 22.8 18.9 0.0 54.1 52.7 20.8 22.7 23.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 14.9 14.6 17.2 -0.3 52.5 50.5 12.9 14.3 15.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 22.5 22.1 17.4 -0.1 53.5 51.5 20.6 22.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 20.5 19.9 15.6 -0.2 52.0 51.9 18.9 19.8 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.8 18.4 -0.1 50.8 51.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.3 16.0 0.0 54.6 53.4 8.2 8.9 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.9 17.9 -0.1 54.4 52.1 20.0 21.5 22.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 21.8 21.9 16.7 0.0 54.4 53.1 20.3 21.4 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 21.8 21.4 17.0 -0.1 53.6 52.1 20.4 21.2 22.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 21.1 20.7 16.8 0.0 54.3 52.7 19.3 20.6 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 21.6 21.0 16.3 -0.1 54.9 52.3 20.4 21.0 21.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.4 17.6 0.1 53.4 53.9 20.8 22.0 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 22.4 22.0 17.4 -0.4 49.5 49.6 19.7 22.0 22.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 22.2 21.7 16.7 -0.1 54.0 52.0 20.5 21.6 23.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.8 18.2 -0.1 51.5 51.6 20.2 21.7 22.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 21.5 21.4 16.2 0.1 54.9 54.0 19.7 21.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.7 18.7 0.0 51.6 52.5 20.3 22.4 23.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 13.9 0.2 56.9 54.6 14.3 15.7 16.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 22.4 22.1 18.5 -0.1 54.2 52.3 21.0 21.8 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.9 22.7 18.4 0.0 51.2 52.1 20.9 22.5 23.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 23.1 22.8 18.7 0.1 52.6 53.3 20.5 22.8 23.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 22.1 22.3 17.6 0.1 54.9 53.6 20.4 21.8 22.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.3 17.4 -0.1 53.4 51.5 20.9 22.2 22.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.0 16.0 -0.1 54.7 52.1 19.3 20.0 21.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 22.4 21.9 18.0 -0.1 52.4 52.2 20.6 21.8 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 22.3 21.9 17.4 -0.3 51.5 50.2 20.2 21.9 22.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.2 15.9 15.2 0.2 55.9 54.5 14.4 15.8 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.7 22.6 18.7 -0.1 52.1 52.1 20.5 22.3 23.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------