***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.4 -1.5 37.4 38.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 18.1 18.8 16.2 -1.5 39.8 38.3 18.1 19.8 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 18.0 19.2 16.4 -1.5 38.9 38.8 18.4 19.7 20.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 10.1 11.3 14.8 -1.6 31.6 35.9 11.4 12.2 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 18.5 18.8 15.0 -1.6 33.1 37.2 18.8 19.8 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 16.5 17.2 13.3 -1.5 33.3 39.1 17.2 18.1 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 17.6 18.9 16.1 -1.5 39.3 38.1 17.7 19.4 20.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.2 7.0 13.6 -1.4 35.6 39.9 6.9 7.6 8.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 18.0 18.4 15.4 -1.6 34.7 37.7 18.3 19.5 20.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 18.0 18.4 14.3 -1.5 35.7 38.8 18.2 19.3 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 18.0 18.9 14.6 -1.5 34.0 38.4 18.9 19.5 21.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 17.3 17.9 14.5 -1.4 35.5 39.7 17.7 18.5 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 18.0 18.9 14.0 -1.4 35.4 39.5 18.5 19.6 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 18.2 19.0 15.2 -1.5 37.1 39.5 18.5 19.8 20.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 16.6 18.6 15.1 -1.6 31.8 35.1 18.6 19.7 20.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 18.6 19.1 14.4 -1.5 34.1 38.5 18.9 20.1 21.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 17.5 18.4 16.0 -1.5 39.8 38.1 17.3 19.2 20.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 17.3 18.0 13.6 -1.5 36.2 39.6 17.8 18.7 20.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 17.8 18.4 16.3 -1.5 39.9 38.7 18.1 19.5 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 12.5 13.3 11.6 -1.3 36.6 41.4 13.2 14.1 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 18.2 18.9 16.0 -1.5 35.2 37.9 18.6 19.7 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 17.9 18.6 16.1 -1.4 40.7 38.5 18.3 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 18.0 18.8 16.3 -1.4 39.2 39.3 18.6 19.8 21.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 17.8 18.8 15.1 -1.5 37.3 39.4 18.5 19.2 20.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 17.9 18.2 15.0 -1.5 34.6 36.9 18.2 19.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 17.4 18.0 13.9 -1.3 34.3 40.2 18.0 18.8 20.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 17.8 18.7 15.7 -1.5 37.2 38.0 18.3 19.5 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 16.9 18.7 15.0 -1.6 31.2 36.0 18.8 19.4 21.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 12.4 13.4 12.7 -1.4 36.3 40.2 13.2 14.0 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 17.9 18.9 16.3 -1.5 39.8 38.6 17.7 19.8 20.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------