***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 14.2 -1.1 38.4 37.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 16.3 15.2 14.2 -0.7 40.5 41.8 14.6 15.6 17.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 17.0 15.7 14.6 -0.8 44.0 41.9 15.1 16.4 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.6 8.3 11.7 -1.7 34.3 34.0 8.3 9.5 11.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 18.0 16.9 13.1 -1.2 41.4 39.5 15.9 17.3 18.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.6 14.7 10.8 -1.8 36.5 36.8 14.3 17.1 19.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 16.5 15.1 14.0 -0.8 37.6 39.9 14.7 16.0 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 5.6 4.7 11.7 -0.9 44.1 43.6 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 17.4 16.5 14.1 -1.0 44.1 41.1 15.2 16.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 17.3 16.7 12.7 -0.9 45.1 43.2 15.3 16.8 18.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.9 17.0 13.0 -1.2 42.7 40.3 15.6 17.5 18.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 17.0 16.0 12.3 -1.1 42.9 41.2 14.8 16.5 18.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 18.4 16.8 12.1 -1.5 41.0 38.0 15.6 18.0 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 16.1 15.4 14.1 -0.3 49.8 48.0 14.5 15.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.2 14.9 12.6 -2.3 23.9 27.6 16.1 17.0 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 18.4 17.2 12.5 -1.5 39.5 38.0 15.9 17.8 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 15.5 14.3 13.9 -0.6 37.7 41.9 14.3 15.0 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 16.5 15.8 12.1 -0.6 46.8 46.0 14.4 15.9 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.0 14.5 -0.6 44.1 43.5 14.8 15.5 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 12.2 11.7 9.9 -0.4 46.6 47.2 9.7 11.8 12.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 17.2 16.1 14.6 -1.0 42.8 40.6 15.3 16.7 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.3 14.2 -0.4 42.9 45.6 15.0 15.5 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 16.1 15.1 14.7 -0.5 48.2 45.4 14.8 15.3 16.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.1 15.5 13.8 -0.6 47.5 45.9 14.6 15.6 17.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 15.2 15.5 13.0 -1.3 35.0 35.9 15.4 16.8 17.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 17.1 15.1 11.1 -1.6 35.1 36.6 14.9 16.4 18.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.1 15.3 13.6 -1.1 36.3 36.8 14.8 16.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 15.6 16.0 12.3 -2.0 31.8 32.5 16.2 17.4 18.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 11.1 10.4 11.3 -0.4 47.9 47.3 9.7 10.7 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 16.6 15.1 14.4 -0.8 40.7 41.1 14.8 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------