***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 -0.8 26.4 33.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.3 5.7 6.8 -0.7 28.6 35.3 6.1 7.6 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 8.2 7.8 6.8 -0.7 26.5 35.0 8.5 9.6 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.8 2.5 4.8 -0.9 23.6 29.7 2.9 3.9 4.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.1 4.8 5.0 -0.8 24.2 32.6 5.3 6.4 6.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 4.0 4.2 3.2 -0.6 31.6 37.0 4.2 4.8 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.4 5.8 6.7 -0.7 25.9 34.1 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -1.0 -0.9 3.5 -0.5 33.3 39.0 -0.9 -0.1 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 6.1 5.7 5.5 -0.7 26.0 34.1 5.7 6.9 7.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 6.0 5.8 4.1 -0.7 28.3 35.9 5.9 6.8 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 5.7 5.6 4.6 -0.7 27.2 34.4 5.8 6.6 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 4.2 4.3 4.2 -0.6 32.0 37.6 4.3 5.0 5.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 5.1 5.4 3.8 -0.6 30.6 36.3 5.4 6.1 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 6.4 6.4 5.5 -0.6 29.3 36.6 6.6 7.5 7.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 6.4 6.3 5.5 -1.0 21.8 28.6 6.8 7.6 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 6.3 6.1 4.2 -0.7 28.7 34.7 6.4 7.1 8.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 6.6 6.7 6.6 -0.7 28.5 34.6 6.9 7.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 3.9 4.0 3.5 -0.6 28.8 37.0 4.0 4.7 5.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.4 6.1 6.8 -0.6 30.1 36.4 6.2 7.5 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 0.9 1.6 1.9 -0.4 35.8 42.2 1.6 1.8 2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 5.9 5.6 6.4 -0.8 25.1 33.4 6.1 6.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.8 6.0 6.6 -0.7 29.5 35.5 6.2 6.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 6.0 5.9 6.6 -0.6 32.0 37.5 5.9 7.0 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 5.8 5.7 5.2 -0.6 27.8 35.9 6.0 6.7 7.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 6.1 6.1 5.7 -0.8 25.9 32.5 6.3 7.4 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 5.2 5.3 3.8 -0.6 33.2 36.8 5.3 6.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 6.1 5.9 6.3 -0.8 26.5 33.2 6.1 7.9 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 4.5 4.8 5.1 -0.9 24.7 29.5 4.9 5.7 6.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 3.0 3.3 2.9 -0.6 31.6 39.1 3.3 4.2 4.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.2 6.9 -0.7 27.1 35.0 6.4 7.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------