***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.04.2013.-05.05.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 8.9 -0.3 46.6 47.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.4 8.6 -0.4 41.3 46.4 7.9 9.4 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 10.0 10.7 8.6 -0.3 42.1 47.9 9.9 11.6 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 5.5 6.7 -0.5 41.5 44.8 4.7 5.8 6.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.4 6.7 -0.4 41.8 46.0 6.9 7.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.2 4.9 -0.4 45.5 47.1 5.8 6.5 7.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.0 8.2 8.6 -0.4 38.7 45.7 8.1 9.6 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.1 1.4 5.1 -0.3 46.7 48.9 0.7 1.6 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 7.1 -0.4 42.2 46.4 7.5 8.3 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.4 5.6 -0.4 42.5 46.6 7.8 8.7 9.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.1 6.2 -0.4 44.8 47.3 7.1 8.3 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.4 5.8 -0.3 47.8 48.5 5.5 6.5 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.0 7.4 5.3 -0.4 45.8 46.8 6.5 7.8 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 7.1 -0.4 43.4 46.1 8.0 8.9 10.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 7.9 8.2 7.1 -0.6 38.4 43.8 8.0 9.1 10.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 7.9 8.7 5.9 -0.4 44.8 46.9 8.2 9.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.8 9.4 8.4 -0.5 39.7 44.5 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 5.9 5.0 -0.5 41.3 45.7 5.6 6.1 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 8.2 8.8 8.6 -0.4 42.3 47.0 8.2 9.5 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.1 3.5 -0.3 47.1 49.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.8 8.1 -0.4 43.6 47.4 7.3 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.0 8.6 8.3 -0.5 39.8 44.7 8.2 9.2 9.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.3 8.3 -0.3 43.7 47.1 8.1 8.7 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.8 8.1 6.8 -0.4 40.6 46.1 8.0 8.3 9.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 7.6 8.4 7.4 -0.4 44.8 46.2 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 6.7 7.7 5.5 -0.4 46.7 47.6 6.9 7.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.8 9.4 8.2 -0.4 45.1 46.6 7.6 9.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 6.5 6.9 6.9 -0.5 41.2 45.0 6.5 7.1 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.8 4.4 -0.4 42.4 46.7 5.1 6.0 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.2 8.6 8.7 -0.4 40.4 47.0 7.8 9.9 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------