***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.04.2013.-28.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.0 -1.5 31.4 33.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 6.0 6.7 6.9 -1.3 33.9 35.3 6.6 8.3 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 7.8 9.1 6.8 -1.3 31.1 34.7 9.1 9.6 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 2.1 2.3 5.1 -1.3 26.3 33.6 3.2 4.4 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 4.7 4.9 5.0 -1.3 28.7 34.4 5.1 6.3 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 67 33 0 100 3.7 4.1 3.4 -1.0 32.1 37.8 4.1 5.3 6.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.0 7.1 6.8 -1.3 34.6 34.8 7.1 7.7 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 -1.0 0.1 3.5 -1.1 33.3 37.5 0.0 0.8 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.5 5.8 5.4 -1.3 30.9 34.3 5.8 7.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.9 6.3 4.1 -1.2 31.6 35.7 6.4 7.2 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 5.4 5.2 4.6 -1.2 31.1 35.5 5.2 6.8 7.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 4.1 4.3 4.3 -1.1 32.3 37.0 4.3 5.1 5.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.9 4.9 3.7 -1.1 30.3 36.1 5.1 6.1 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 6.3 6.4 5.5 -1.3 28.2 35.5 6.7 8.1 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 5.7 6.4 5.6 -1.2 26.2 32.9 6.7 8.1 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 5.9 6.2 4.3 -1.1 29.7 35.9 6.4 7.5 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.4 6.7 -1.3 34.8 35.4 7.3 8.3 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 3.7 3.7 3.5 -1.3 27.5 36.0 4.1 4.9 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 6.0 7.0 6.9 -1.2 33.5 35.5 7.0 8.0 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 1.2 1.2 1.8 -1.2 29.3 38.3 1.3 2.3 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.0 6.1 6.3 -1.4 30.3 34.0 6.4 6.8 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 5.5 6.1 6.7 -1.3 33.5 35.6 6.1 7.7 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.9 6.1 6.7 -1.2 33.2 35.9 6.1 7.6 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 5.8 5.8 5.2 -1.3 29.3 35.6 6.0 6.7 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 5.6 5.8 5.6 -1.4 28.9 33.1 6.7 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.0 5.1 3.9 -1.1 28.0 36.1 5.6 6.4 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.8 6.7 6.3 -1.5 30.7 32.8 6.7 7.8 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 4.3 4.0 5.3 -1.2 27.2 34.4 4.7 6.1 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 3.0 3.4 2.8 -1.3 26.1 36.9 3.9 4.5 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 5.8 6.4 6.9 -1.3 32.3 34.9 6.6 8.1 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------