***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.04.2013.-21.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 0.0 7.1 -0.2 46.6 48.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 4.5 5.7 7.2 0.1 55.2 52.6 4.6 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.8 8.2 7.1 0.0 53.4 51.8 7.2 8.0 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 1.2 2.1 5.2 -0.3 48.2 46.7 1.7 2.1 3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 3.5 5.1 5.3 -0.1 52.0 48.9 4.0 4.9 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.2 4.4 3.6 0.0 55.1 51.2 3.4 4.4 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.2 7.1 0.1 54.2 51.6 5.2 6.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -1.3 -1.4 4.0 0.2 57.5 54.0 -2.4 -1.7 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.7 6.3 5.8 0.0 54.2 50.8 4.4 6.1 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.9 6.6 4.6 0.1 56.9 52.4 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.2 4.9 0.0 54.3 50.4 4.3 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.8 4.4 4.6 0.1 56.8 52.6 3.3 4.3 5.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.5 4.1 0.1 54.4 51.6 4.6 5.3 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 6.4 6.0 0.4 57.4 56.0 5.0 6.2 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 5.4 6.3 5.5 -0.4 44.0 45.4 5.7 6.5 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.6 4.6 0.0 52.7 50.1 5.1 6.5 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.3 7.0 0.2 55.1 52.8 5.0 6.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 4.3 4.2 4.1 0.3 59.2 55.0 2.6 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.8 5.9 7.2 0.2 56.1 53.3 4.8 5.7 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.7 2.5 0.5 60.4 57.6 0.2 1.1 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.7 6.4 6.6 -0.1 51.7 50.5 4.8 6.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.2 5.8 7.1 0.3 55.6 53.6 4.5 5.3 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.1 7.0 0.3 56.7 54.4 4.5 5.9 6.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.7 0.2 58.7 54.8 4.2 5.2 6.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.2 5.8 -0.2 48.5 48.5 4.7 6.2 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.8 5.6 4.3 0.1 56.7 52.2 3.9 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.0 6.5 -0.2 47.4 48.5 4.9 6.2 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.9 5.3 -0.3 47.8 47.0 3.9 5.1 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.0 3.0 3.6 0.4 60.9 57.3 1.7 2.6 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.0 6.3 7.2 0.1 53.4 51.6 5.1 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------