***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.04.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.04.2013.-14.04.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 9999.0 0.0 4.9 -1.2 30.6 34.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.2 4.4 4.5 -1.2 26.9 32.8 5.0 5.7 6.2 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.1 6.3 4.7 -1.1 31.1 33.6 6.3 7.5 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -0.7 -0.3 2.2 -1.7 26.0 26.6 0.3 1.6 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.3 3.3 3.0 -1.4 29.9 29.8 3.7 4.8 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 2.6 2.6 1.1 -1.1 29.1 32.5 2.8 3.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 4.5 4.8 4.4 -1.3 26.9 31.7 5.1 6.0 6.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -2.5 1.4 -0.9 31.4 33.9 -2.5 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 3.9 4.0 3.6 -1.2 29.9 30.7 4.4 5.1 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.2 2.1 -1.1 29.9 31.8 4.4 5.3 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.7 3.8 2.6 -1.3 28.2 29.5 4.1 5.4 6.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.7 2.0 -1.1 30.1 32.2 2.8 4.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 3.2 3.8 1.9 -1.2 28.0 31.3 4.2 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.6 5.0 3.5 -1.2 30.3 32.2 5.2 5.8 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 4.7 4.4 3.6 -1.7 23.6 25.5 4.7 6.2 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 4.3 4.3 2.3 -1.3 28.6 30.1 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.2 4.5 4.1 -1.3 26.8 31.5 4.9 5.8 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 2.3 2.5 1.5 -1.0 29.1 32.0 2.7 3.0 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 4.5 4.5 -1.1 28.8 33.7 4.7 5.4 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 32.1 36.3 0.1 1.1 1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 4.1 4.1 4.4 -1.3 28.6 31.0 4.3 5.3 6.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.2 -1.2 28.3 32.6 4.6 5.3 6.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 4.1 4.5 -1.0 31.8 34.3 4.2 5.1 6.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.3 3.2 -1.1 29.3 31.5 4.5 5.1 6.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.5 4.2 3.9 -1.3 31.4 33.2 4.5 5.9 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.2 3.8 1.5 -1.1 29.5 33.0 3.9 4.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.7 4.1 4.4 -1.2 32.4 34.7 4.1 6.0 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 2.4 2.4 2.7 -1.8 23.8 25.1 2.8 4.3 5.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 0.7 1.2 0.8 -0.9 28.9 32.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.8 4.7 4.7 -1.2 29.1 33.4 4.9 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------