***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 47.7 41.0 45.6 90.7 49.6 46.8 38.5 41.1 61.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 41.0 30.8 46.2 90.4 46.5 45.6 26.6 35.0 49.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 57.1 51.7 45.7 90.9 48.1 46.3 36.0 52.3 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 52.9 66.3 52.9 88.5 44.8 44.6 52.6 66.9 70.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 37.1 50.4 53.6 91.4 47.6 46.3 39.3 51.3 63.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 39.1 48.6 70.0 96.4 48.5 47.7 42.3 49.3 56.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 40.9 27.9 45.6 88.5 41.9 44.3 23.0 34.5 44.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 65.7 78.4 57.6 89.3 45.0 43.4 70.3 78.7 100.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 35.8 51.7 51.6 90.2 48.6 45.5 37.9 52.0 62.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 43.4 57.8 58.1 89.0 46.8 43.7 44.4 59.3 70.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 40.2 51.3 48.9 88.2 46.6 44.1 44.3 53.0 62.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 39.8 52.0 49.1 90.0 46.3 44.5 37.9 54.3 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 45.4 54.2 58.2 93.3 45.2 45.5 48.5 56.8 62.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 63.7 59.1 59.3 93.1 52.7 47.2 51.0 57.2 67.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 36.9 46.0 51.4 89.6 45.8 44.8 38.5 47.0 53.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 41.4 54.0 54.2 92.1 47.1 45.6 44.4 55.9 63.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 40.6 35.7 46.3 91.4 49.9 46.4 30.2 35.8 40.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 41.1 55.2 64.6 89.2 47.5 43.4 48.4 56.8 70.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 49.2 44.0 46.5 91.5 47.7 46.4 31.8 44.5 51.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 31.6 45.1 74.5 90.6 46.2 43.4 38.4 45.7 67.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 30.7 43.3 46.8 91.6 52.4 47.3 37.1 41.7 54.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 44.7 41.8 48.2 95.2 53.1 48.6 35.5 41.0 49.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 47.0 43.3 48.4 93.6 49.6 47.9 37.1 43.4 56.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 41.5 50.5 56.1 90.3 50.4 45.1 46.0 50.3 65.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 54.4 52.0 56.4 91.2 53.0 46.6 37.3 47.3 66.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 33.2 41.0 54.2 92.2 45.5 45.3 36.1 44.2 56.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 53.0 45.0 53.6 91.1 50.9 46.6 33.7 44.8 61.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 34.5 47.1 52.6 90.3 47.4 45.4 32.5 48.6 63.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 54.4 70.5 68.4 90.6 49.4 44.1 64.5 71.3 84.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 42.1 34.1 45.9 90.2 45.6 45.7 29.6 37.7 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------