***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 3.7 3.4 11.1 107.4 63.0 53.3 1.4 2.5 3.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.5 12.5 108.2 66.9 56.0 1.8 2.5 4.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 6.5 7.3 11.1 106.7 64.4 53.2 1.4 4.2 7.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.7 15.3 116.6 66.5 52.4 6.2 8.3 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.6 6.9 13.4 106.1 64.0 50.7 1.7 4.6 7.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 9.5 16.8 94.0 58.6 48.3 4.2 6.5 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.8 12.7 105.4 64.7 55.2 1.2 3.0 4.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 8.0 17.5 13.9 100.3 58.4 48.3 8.4 15.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.3 6.6 11.9 98.1 59.8 49.1 2.9 4.8 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.6 7.6 13.8 96.3 56.8 48.2 2.9 6.5 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 2.2 7.3 12.1 104.1 61.1 49.8 2.0 4.5 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.4 12.1 107.4 62.4 50.3 3.3 5.6 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.6 14.0 99.6 58.6 49.5 4.7 6.6 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 3.8 12.9 14.3 103.7 64.1 50.4 3.9 6.8 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.5 14.8 121.0 71.5 52.3 2.5 6.3 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.3 13.5 103.3 60.7 50.2 1.5 4.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 4.8 5.2 12.8 108.6 66.4 56.2 1.2 3.5 5.1 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.9 15.8 97.9 55.6 48.4 2.7 6.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 4.9 7.5 12.1 109.1 66.6 55.7 1.6 3.8 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.9 7.7 17.7 96.1 51.5 47.3 3.2 7.6 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 4.8 4.9 10.6 103.0 63.1 51.1 2.0 3.3 5.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.2 7.1 13.0 117.8 67.8 58.4 1.3 4.0 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.8 11.6 106.8 63.5 53.8 2.5 5.8 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.6 13.8 103.0 61.1 50.6 2.1 5.2 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 6.4 8.8 14.9 113.9 62.4 54.2 0.6 5.2 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.6 12.7 102.5 60.0 49.8 2.9 4.4 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 4.5 6.9 13.9 110.4 61.4 53.9 1.0 3.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.8 14.8 114.5 66.2 51.0 2.4 4.3 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.6 13.7 16.4 97.8 55.5 48.2 5.0 11.1 18.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 3.7 5.4 12.2 107.9 65.6 54.9 0.5 3.0 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------