***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 15.4 22.7 13.9 125.4 75.8 57.1 5.8 12.9 18.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.5 13.2 113.8 71.9 53.4 4.5 7.1 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 13.3 14.1 13.3 118.3 70.9 54.9 5.7 10.8 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.3 14.3 15.6 107.4 62.4 52.3 8.0 11.6 15.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.8 14.6 14.8 106.9 64.3 52.3 4.9 7.3 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.5 19.8 108.5 61.0 51.5 4.3 7.9 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 4.1 10.5 13.5 114.4 67.5 52.9 4.2 7.2 10.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 8.9 17.7 14.4 89.8 57.5 46.6 10.5 14.1 25.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.1 14.7 111.0 65.0 51.8 4.9 9.1 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 14.2 15.7 101.2 62.5 49.4 6.1 9.8 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.5 11.2 12.6 95.9 62.8 49.6 4.3 8.4 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.9 11.6 85.8 56.4 45.9 2.3 9.9 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.5 15.1 95.9 54.4 48.4 2.5 9.6 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 4.5 16.8 15.2 102.5 65.4 50.2 6.7 9.4 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 9.1 12.0 15.7 113.0 63.4 53.1 2.6 5.9 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.5 10.0 13.8 96.4 58.1 49.0 4.3 9.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.7 13.6 114.8 67.0 53.5 5.4 7.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 6.3 17.1 17.3 98.2 64.6 47.9 6.9 13.1 17.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 16.6 12.9 112.5 69.9 53.2 4.3 6.3 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 5.6 11.9 19.0 91.5 57.4 46.8 6.6 11.0 13.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 13.4 13.6 120.1 68.6 55.3 3.6 8.6 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.3 13.7 13.5 116.4 68.7 53.7 5.2 7.1 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.4 13.1 111.8 69.2 52.5 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.7 17.8 15.2 104.6 66.7 49.8 5.7 11.4 17.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 11.7 17.8 16.6 116.8 67.5 54.8 5.3 7.3 17.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.3 9.1 13.9 96.5 56.4 48.6 2.5 7.7 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.8 18.3 16.2 120.7 71.0 55.5 3.5 9.8 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 9.5 11.3 15.1 105.1 60.9 51.1 4.2 7.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 8.3 17.9 17.6 95.0 59.8 47.4 7.5 13.9 23.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.0 17.0 13.3 117.3 71.5 54.8 4.1 8.7 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------