***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 7.4 14.9 12.3 87.5 57.8 42.5 5.0 14.1 15.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.8 8.9 12.0 86.7 57.3 44.2 6.1 7.4 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 7.7 15.2 12.7 93.7 56.2 44.6 10.7 13.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 9.1 18.2 14.0 91.7 59.7 42.6 11.3 15.2 22.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 8.5 17.7 14.6 98.6 62.0 46.7 5.7 15.1 21.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 7.4 15.6 20.5 116.5 63.2 52.6 8.0 11.8 16.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.1 9.6 11.2 81.6 56.3 42.2 5.1 9.1 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.8 25.5 16.6 100.9 60.7 50.9 17.2 23.3 26.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.0 16.7 14.3 97.1 59.2 46.0 6.8 13.6 22.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 9.2 17.9 16.2 95.5 57.3 48.2 8.7 15.4 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.6 15.2 13.9 97.2 59.8 48.8 7.2 12.3 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 9.3 16.4 14.4 108.3 65.4 51.6 8.6 12.7 16.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 10.0 22.0 17.1 116.0 65.3 52.2 6.8 15.7 22.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 8.4 20.4 18.2 109.1 63.5 49.3 11.1 15.7 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.9 13.3 14.4 93.6 59.1 44.1 5.1 12.1 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.3 16.5 15.8 110.9 62.6 50.9 6.9 13.9 18.5 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.0 8.8 11.0 81.7 55.0 43.2 4.1 8.3 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 15.7 15.4 18.6 100.6 58.5 49.6 6.6 13.4 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.6 10.0 12.8 92.5 58.7 45.6 5.4 9.2 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 14.1 14.4 22.5 106.2 59.8 52.9 6.5 11.4 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 8.1 19.5 13.4 99.7 60.3 46.2 7.6 13.6 20.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.0 12.2 12.5 89.0 57.7 45.6 7.2 9.8 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.6 14.8 14.3 102.5 60.9 47.4 5.7 11.8 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 8.2 14.3 16.4 101.6 60.6 48.1 8.9 12.8 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 7.8 19.1 15.2 90.6 57.5 44.0 5.4 15.3 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 5.6 18.8 16.6 119.9 65.7 53.6 3.7 8.9 19.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.6 14.1 14.2 87.2 57.1 43.5 4.0 12.3 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.0 14.3 98.6 59.7 44.9 4.0 9.4 18.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 22.3 20.5 104.7 59.1 51.3 11.2 18.3 24.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 5.0 12.5 12.0 86.4 56.9 43.0 4.5 10.8 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------