***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.7 5.8 8.3 56.0 33.6 33.0 5.7 7.6 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.0 5.7 8.5 60.2 40.1 36.2 4.3 9.4 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.2 6.5 8.6 57.1 35.7 34.3 6.1 9.3 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 8.4 6.7 8.0 47.5 26.2 26.8 13.0 17.7 21.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 6.2 8.9 10.8 62.3 39.1 36.1 7.5 12.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.2 6.9 13.0 68.3 37.2 37.3 4.0 10.4 16.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.5 3.0 8.3 59.0 38.9 35.0 2.6 5.1 11.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 14.1 18.2 12.7 70.3 40.1 38.1 17.4 21.7 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 6.5 7.9 10.6 62.4 39.8 36.4 6.1 11.9 17.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 8.9 13.5 12.4 67.4 40.0 37.4 12.3 15.6 21.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 6.7 9.8 10.4 63.2 39.2 36.2 7.2 12.3 18.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.6 7.1 11.0 67.3 36.9 37.6 5.0 9.6 16.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 6.6 8.7 12.0 67.4 34.3 37.0 7.8 12.7 18.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 9.5 12.7 11.6 63.0 36.1 36.2 10.1 19.4 26.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 2.9 2.8 6.5 41.4 26.4 24.8 3.7 8.8 14.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 6.5 9.7 11.1 64.6 35.4 36.4 9.0 12.4 18.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.0 6.6 9.0 66.0 41.3 38.5 3.2 8.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 8.3 9.6 12.8 64.2 34.1 34.0 9.6 14.4 19.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.1 8.7 60.4 39.3 36.2 6.4 12.4 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.2 15.4 70.1 35.6 36.4 6.1 9.3 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 5.3 6.6 9.2 57.5 35.6 33.8 6.3 8.9 14.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.2 6.7 9.3 66.2 40.8 38.8 5.1 12.0 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 7.0 9.1 9.4 62.1 37.9 36.9 8.0 14.2 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 7.8 9.6 10.7 59.5 33.9 33.2 9.4 13.5 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 4.9 4.5 9.6 54.4 31.4 30.8 5.7 10.5 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 6.7 6.5 10.9 60.6 36.3 34.2 6.4 11.9 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.6 6.2 9.3 56.4 33.9 32.3 6.0 10.5 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 4.0 4.8 8.4 51.2 30.0 29.3 5.0 8.3 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 12.3 14.4 13.9 67.4 34.1 35.5 13.7 18.2 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.9 4.1 8.4 58.5 38.3 35.2 2.7 9.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------