***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 19.2 19.4 19.0 1.2 75.7 67.7 18.2 18.7 19.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 19.4 19.6 18.9 1.3 73.8 68.8 17.7 18.6 19.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 19.5 19.7 19.1 1.2 75.3 67.3 18.0 18.9 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 12.3 12.4 17.1 1.0 72.9 65.4 11.3 11.6 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 19.6 19.8 17.5 1.2 73.8 66.3 18.7 19.2 19.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 18.6 19.1 15.7 1.2 78.2 66.6 17.3 17.8 18.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 19.1 19.4 18.8 1.3 74.3 68.7 17.6 18.5 19.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 7.4 8.1 16.0 1.3 76.5 67.1 6.0 6.6 7.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 19.2 19.4 18.1 1.2 74.1 66.6 17.9 18.7 19.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 19.2 19.5 16.8 1.2 73.9 66.1 18.1 18.6 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 41 59 100 19.5 19.9 17.2 1.3 77.7 67.3 18.3 18.9 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 18.6 19.2 16.9 1.3 79.4 68.1 17.4 17.8 18.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 19.6 20.2 16.6 1.3 81.3 67.6 18.4 18.9 19.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 19.5 19.5 17.7 1.0 71.0 64.9 17.9 18.8 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 19.3 19.5 17.6 1.0 72.0 66.1 18.4 18.8 19.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 20.1 20.5 17.0 1.2 78.4 67.2 18.7 19.4 20.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 18.2 19.0 18.6 1.3 72.6 68.2 17.3 18.1 18.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 18.5 19.1 16.1 1.1 71.3 65.0 17.4 18.3 19.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 19.1 19.3 19.0 1.3 74.2 68.6 17.6 18.4 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 13.8 14.3 14.0 1.3 75.6 67.2 12.4 13.2 14.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 19.6 19.8 18.7 1.2 73.5 66.1 18.1 18.9 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 19.2 19.5 18.6 1.2 71.6 67.4 17.9 18.6 19.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.8 18.9 1.2 75.2 67.8 18.1 18.7 19.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 18.6 19.3 17.6 1.1 71.7 65.3 17.7 18.4 19.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 19.0 19.5 17.5 1.0 73.4 65.2 18.1 18.8 19.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.2 16.1 1.3 80.7 68.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 45 55 100 19.2 19.4 18.2 1.1 74.1 66.2 18.0 18.7 18.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 19.4 19.4 17.4 1.0 72.8 65.7 18.5 19.0 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 13.7 14.1 15.2 1.2 72.6 65.6 12.3 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 19.3 19.4 19.1 1.3 75.2 68.8 17.8 18.7 19.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------