***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 22.8 22.9 21.1 0.6 57.2 55.5 20.6 22.3 23.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 20.2 22.4 20.8 0.4 55.2 54.0 20.7 22.2 24.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 20.0 22.3 21.1 0.6 57.0 55.0 20.7 21.6 23.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 12.6 15.6 19.4 0.6 61.1 54.6 12.8 14.5 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 19.9 23.1 19.7 0.7 64.7 55.7 20.8 21.4 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 18.2 21.6 18.0 1.0 65.8 57.6 18.0 19.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 22.1 21.5 20.8 0.4 54.4 53.8 20.2 21.4 23.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 11.1 9.9 18.2 0.8 64.3 56.2 6.8 9.0 10.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 19.5 22.6 20.1 0.8 63.3 55.8 19.9 21.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 19.7 22.3 18.9 0.8 62.3 55.7 19.8 21.3 22.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 22.9 22.9 19.4 0.9 66.7 57.1 20.0 21.4 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 22.3 21.7 19.2 1.0 67.8 57.3 18.4 20.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 23.0 22.2 18.8 1.0 66.2 57.4 19.1 21.0 22.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 19.9 22.0 19.4 0.3 54.2 52.6 20.3 21.8 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 20.2 22.5 19.6 0.6 60.8 55.2 20.2 22.1 22.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 20.1 23.4 19.2 1.0 66.4 57.1 19.8 22.0 23.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.8 21.3 20.4 0.3 51.7 52.0 19.9 21.2 23.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 19.1 20.8 18.2 0.6 56.9 54.1 18.8 20.4 22.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 19.5 22.5 20.9 0.5 56.0 54.4 20.1 21.4 23.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 13.8 15.6 16.0 0.6 56.1 54.2 13.4 15.3 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 19.8 22.5 20.7 0.6 60.6 55.1 20.4 21.4 23.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 22.2 21.8 20.3 0.2 52.1 51.6 20.7 21.4 23.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.8 22.6 20.7 0.5 56.2 54.4 20.6 21.8 23.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 19.6 21.9 19.6 0.5 56.6 54.0 19.8 21.1 22.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 22.2 22.7 19.5 0.5 56.4 54.1 20.4 21.7 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 22.1 21.5 18.4 1.0 66.5 57.4 18.5 19.8 21.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 22.0 21.8 20.2 0.4 55.6 54.4 20.5 21.4 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 20.2 22.6 19.6 0.7 62.7 55.4 20.3 22.2 22.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 13.5 15.8 17.1 0.5 55.2 53.6 13.7 14.9 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 19.7 22.4 21.0 0.5 56.2 54.8 20.2 21.8 23.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------