***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 20.1 20.2 19.1 0.5 57.0 56.4 18.7 19.6 21.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 20.6 20.2 19.0 0.5 55.8 55.9 18.1 20.0 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.1 19.2 0.5 55.8 56.0 18.9 19.6 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.5 12.0 17.3 0.3 55.2 54.5 11.1 11.7 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 20.6 19.9 17.6 0.4 55.8 55.6 19.1 19.8 21.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.7 15.9 0.5 55.4 55.1 17.5 18.3 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 20.1 19.6 18.9 0.5 55.7 55.5 17.8 19.4 20.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.2 16.2 0.5 58.0 55.8 6.5 7.7 8.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 20.1 19.6 18.1 0.4 55.3 55.9 18.1 19.5 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 19.6 16.9 0.4 56.0 55.3 18.1 19.2 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 18.6 20.1 17.3 0.5 58.1 56.9 18.5 19.4 21.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.3 17.1 0.6 60.1 57.0 17.8 18.6 20.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.1 16.7 0.6 59.4 56.6 18.7 19.5 21.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 20.6 19.9 17.7 0.1 49.1 52.3 18.6 19.9 21.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 17.6 19.8 17.4 0.3 56.5 54.2 18.1 19.5 20.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.9 20.2 17.1 0.5 56.8 56.3 19.0 20.0 21.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.6 18.6 0.4 54.2 54.5 17.0 19.0 20.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 19.4 18.9 16.3 0.2 52.5 53.5 17.6 18.7 20.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 20.2 19.7 19.1 0.5 55.2 55.8 18.0 19.6 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 14.9 14.6 14.0 0.3 53.4 53.7 13.1 14.2 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 20.3 19.8 18.7 0.4 56.4 56.0 18.7 19.8 20.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 20.5 20.0 18.6 0.2 52.2 53.4 18.0 19.8 20.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 20.6 20.2 19.0 0.4 53.4 54.8 18.4 19.9 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 20.2 19.7 17.8 0.3 52.1 53.6 18.2 19.7 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 20.2 20.0 17.5 0.3 56.3 54.6 18.3 19.4 20.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 19.5 19.8 16.3 0.5 59.1 55.9 18.1 19.0 20.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 20.0 19.7 18.2 0.4 55.6 55.1 18.3 19.3 20.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 17.4 19.4 17.4 0.3 55.1 54.6 18.7 19.2 20.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.1 15.2 0.2 52.7 53.4 12.8 14.1 15.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 20.2 20.0 19.2 0.5 56.0 56.3 17.9 19.5 20.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------