***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.8 18.2 1.2 67.2 63.9 15.7 17.3 17.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.8 18.1 18.1 1.5 71.5 65.8 15.0 16.7 18.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 18.0 18.2 18.2 1.2 67.4 63.8 15.9 17.0 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 10.8 10.5 16.2 0.7 61.6 58.5 8.7 9.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 18.2 17.7 16.5 0.8 62.2 60.0 16.5 17.1 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.7 14.8 0.7 58.9 58.8 14.5 15.4 16.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 17.6 17.8 18.1 1.5 71.1 65.4 14.7 16.8 17.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 5.8 5.3 15.0 1.0 63.8 61.3 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 17.5 17.3 17.0 0.9 61.9 60.9 15.7 16.6 17.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.4 15.8 0.9 62.1 60.8 15.9 16.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 17.7 17.5 16.2 0.9 63.7 60.7 16.0 16.8 17.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 17.0 16.6 15.9 1.0 64.1 61.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 17.8 17.2 15.5 0.9 61.4 60.5 15.8 16.6 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 17.3 17.9 16.7 1.0 64.2 61.2 16.1 17.1 17.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 17.9 17.5 16.4 0.6 59.6 57.7 15.8 17.1 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 18.1 17.5 15.9 0.8 62.6 59.8 16.5 16.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 42 58 100 17.2 17.4 17.9 1.5 69.3 65.6 14.3 16.3 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 17.6 17.0 15.1 1.0 61.4 60.9 15.5 16.5 17.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 17.6 18.0 18.2 1.4 70.9 65.5 15.1 16.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 12.0 12.1 13.0 1.1 65.2 62.4 9.5 10.4 12.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 17.8 17.7 17.6 1.0 63.9 61.4 15.8 16.8 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 17.8 17.6 17.8 1.4 67.4 64.7 15.2 16.9 17.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 17.9 17.8 18.0 1.3 68.1 64.3 15.7 17.1 17.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 42 58 100 17.6 17.6 16.7 1.0 64.0 61.7 15.9 16.8 17.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 17.8 17.8 16.6 0.9 64.9 60.9 15.7 16.7 17.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 17.0 16.6 15.1 0.9 63.1 60.3 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 17.6 17.8 17.4 1.1 67.1 63.0 15.4 16.4 17.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 17.8 17.8 16.3 0.6 59.5 57.7 15.8 17.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 11.9 11.9 14.2 1.0 63.1 61.2 9.6 10.8 12.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.8 17.9 18.2 1.4 70.6 65.4 15.0 16.7 17.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------