***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 18.2 19.3 17.7 2.6 78.8 73.5 14.5 16.2 17.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 18.1 20.1 17.7 2.9 82.0 76.2 14.7 16.1 17.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 18.2 19.5 17.7 2.7 79.2 73.3 15.4 16.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 12.7 13.8 15.5 2.7 79.2 73.7 8.0 9.9 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 28 72 100 19.9 20.5 16.3 2.7 76.2 72.5 15.9 17.3 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 19.3 20.5 14.2 2.6 76.0 71.5 14.6 16.2 19.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 17.7 19.6 17.6 2.8 82.6 76.2 14.8 16.0 17.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 30 70 100 7.2 8.3 14.6 2.8 74.3 72.3 3.5 4.5 7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 18.9 19.9 17.2 2.7 76.3 73.1 15.5 16.2 18.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 19.3 19.7 15.6 2.7 74.0 71.6 15.1 17.2 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 19.7 20.5 16.1 2.7 75.2 71.7 15.7 17.1 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 19.0 19.9 15.4 2.8 76.1 72.8 14.6 16.0 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 20.1 21.0 15.4 2.7 75.7 72.3 15.3 17.2 20.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 18.4 19.8 16.9 2.8 79.6 73.5 14.4 15.9 17.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 19.3 20.4 17.0 2.6 82.4 75.4 15.7 17.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 20.5 21.4 15.8 2.7 76.3 72.1 15.9 17.7 20.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 17.2 18.5 17.4 2.9 82.2 76.9 14.1 15.4 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 18.4 19.0 14.9 2.8 74.9 71.4 14.7 15.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.1 19.9 17.8 2.9 81.9 75.9 14.6 15.9 17.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 13.7 14.7 12.9 3.1 76.2 73.7 9.6 10.8 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 18.6 19.6 17.6 2.6 76.9 72.2 15.6 16.4 18.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 18.0 19.6 17.5 3.0 81.7 76.9 14.1 15.9 17.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 18.4 19.8 17.8 2.9 80.6 75.0 14.7 16.1 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 18.0 18.7 16.5 2.7 76.7 71.8 14.8 15.9 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 18.7 19.4 16.4 2.5 77.8 72.3 15.3 17.0 18.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 22 78 100 19.5 20.4 14.6 2.8 77.0 73.8 14.5 16.2 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 18.3 19.2 17.0 2.5 77.0 72.4 15.4 16.5 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 19.7 20.6 16.2 2.6 80.2 73.9 16.0 17.5 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 13.6 14.2 14.2 2.9 76.2 72.4 9.3 11.1 12.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 17.9 19.5 17.8 2.8 81.5 75.5 14.8 16.0 17.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------