***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 7.7 8.1 8.5 0.8 69.8 65.7 7.2 7.5 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 8.1 8.4 8.5 1.0 77.3 70.5 6.0 7.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 9.8 10.0 8.3 0.9 74.5 67.5 8.3 9.3 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 3.8 4.1 5.9 0.6 65.7 63.1 2.8 3.6 4.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 6.6 7.0 6.2 0.8 72.2 66.8 5.3 6.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 5.5 6.1 4.5 1.0 80.1 70.9 4.2 4.6 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 8.1 8.5 8.6 1.1 77.4 70.8 6.2 7.2 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 0.2 0.5 4.6 0.9 74.5 67.7 -1.2 -0.3 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 7.3 7.7 6.7 0.9 75.4 68.1 5.9 6.6 7.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.5 5.1 0.8 73.1 67.0 5.8 6.5 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 7.0 7.3 5.7 0.9 75.9 68.0 5.8 6.3 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 5.4 5.9 5.3 0.9 76.0 68.4 4.2 4.8 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 6.7 7.1 5.0 1.0 78.8 71.3 5.4 5.8 6.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.0 6.7 0.9 75.2 68.7 6.5 7.3 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.9 6.5 0.6 66.3 62.0 6.9 7.4 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 7.8 8.3 5.5 0.9 78.3 70.0 6.3 6.9 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 8.2 8.5 8.3 1.1 78.1 71.1 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 5.1 5.3 4.5 0.9 72.7 67.2 3.9 4.5 5.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 7.9 8.3 8.4 1.0 77.0 70.4 6.1 7.2 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 2.4 2.8 2.9 1.0 76.0 69.4 1.3 1.6 2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 7.3 7.5 7.7 0.8 70.6 66.1 5.8 6.6 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.6 8.2 1.0 77.6 70.9 6.1 6.7 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 7.5 7.8 8.0 1.0 76.8 70.4 6.0 6.8 7.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.2 6.4 0.9 74.6 68.1 5.7 6.5 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 7.4 7.6 6.8 0.6 66.3 62.9 6.2 7.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.9 5.1 1.0 79.1 70.8 5.2 5.7 6.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 7.8 8.4 7.7 0.8 69.3 64.6 6.0 7.7 8.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 5.7 6.3 6.2 0.7 70.3 64.9 5.0 5.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.9 4.0 1.0 72.9 68.3 3.1 4.0 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.3 8.6 8.6 1.0 76.3 69.6 6.3 7.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------