***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.04.2014.-04.05.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.7 10.4 0.4 61.9 56.9 8.2 10.2 11.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 7.9 10.9 10.3 0.4 58.5 56.5 7.6 9.8 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 9.5 12.5 10.1 0.4 61.1 56.7 9.8 11.4 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.4 6.2 7.8 0.2 55.0 53.9 4.4 6.1 6.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.3 8.7 7.8 0.3 58.3 56.4 6.3 7.9 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.7 6.6 6.2 0.4 60.9 58.0 5.4 6.4 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.2 10.3 0.4 57.5 56.6 7.7 9.5 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.7 6.2 0.2 54.7 55.2 0.2 1.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.3 8.8 8.3 0.4 62.1 57.6 7.2 8.5 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.8 6.8 0.2 55.9 55.9 7.3 8.5 9.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 8.4 7.4 0.4 59.7 57.3 7.2 7.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.4 7.0 0.3 59.6 56.9 5.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.0 6.6 0.5 64.3 59.2 6.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.7 9.6 8.3 0.2 58.0 55.2 8.0 8.7 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 8.0 9.1 8.2 0.2 54.1 53.5 8.4 9.0 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.9 7.2 0.4 62.2 58.3 8.1 9.1 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 8.9 10.2 10.1 0.3 54.1 55.4 8.3 10.1 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.2 6.1 0.2 54.3 55.2 5.3 5.9 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.4 10.2 0.4 60.8 56.6 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 2.0 3.3 4.5 0.2 54.6 54.4 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.9 9.2 9.4 0.3 59.4 56.7 7.0 8.0 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 7.6 9.2 10.0 0.3 56.5 55.0 7.6 8.9 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 10.2 9.8 9.8 0.4 62.3 56.9 7.4 8.9 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.3 8.6 8.1 0.3 57.8 56.1 7.9 8.5 9.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 7.5 10.4 8.6 0.3 58.0 54.1 6.9 9.5 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.6 7.8 6.9 0.5 63.8 58.1 6.5 7.5 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.9 11.1 9.5 0.3 59.7 55.5 6.8 10.0 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.3 8.0 0.3 56.4 55.3 6.2 7.0 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.5 6.3 5.5 0.2 55.1 54.6 4.8 6.0 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.3 10.8 10.4 0.4 59.9 56.8 7.8 10.0 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------