***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.04.2014.-27.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 6.5 8.3 8.6 0.6 61.8 56.5 7.5 7.9 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.7 8.6 0.7 65.1 58.4 6.8 7.5 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.8 10.4 8.4 0.6 63.8 57.3 9.1 9.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 6.0 0.3 58.4 53.5 2.9 4.8 5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.3 7.2 6.2 0.5 61.1 55.5 4.8 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.7 4.5 0.4 62.5 55.7 4.2 5.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.0 8.8 8.6 0.7 64.4 58.3 6.8 7.6 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.5 1.0 4.6 0.5 63.6 57.3 -0.5 0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.6 6.7 0.5 60.3 56.5 5.8 6.6 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 7.4 7.7 5.2 0.5 62.5 56.9 5.7 7.1 8.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.5 5.8 0.5 62.8 56.9 4.9 6.6 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.6 5.4 0.5 62.4 57.2 3.9 4.8 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 6.3 6.6 4.9 0.4 59.5 55.9 4.7 5.8 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.2 6.7 0.6 62.4 57.7 6.7 7.8 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.5 6.4 0.2 53.3 52.5 6.4 7.5 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 7.7 8.3 5.5 0.5 60.3 55.4 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.7 8.4 0.6 63.5 58.0 7.0 7.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.3 4.5 0.5 61.4 56.9 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.4 8.5 0.7 64.9 58.6 6.5 7.8 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 2.3 2.6 2.8 0.5 62.9 57.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 7.7 7.7 0.5 60.8 56.2 5.6 6.9 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.8 8.3 0.6 64.7 58.4 6.3 7.3 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.8 8.3 8.2 0.7 64.5 58.8 5.8 7.5 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.1 6.5 0.6 62.8 57.4 5.6 6.4 7.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.2 6.8 0.4 58.6 54.5 5.8 7.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 6.3 6.3 5.1 0.4 61.6 55.6 5.4 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.8 8.2 7.8 0.5 60.6 55.6 6.6 7.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.5 5.6 6.2 0.3 56.6 53.5 4.0 5.0 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.3 4.0 0.6 62.6 57.9 3.7 4.6 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.9 8.7 0.7 64.6 58.1 6.7 7.6 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------