***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.04.2014.-20.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.6 8.0 1.0 71.6 65.9 5.2 6.9 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 7.2 7.8 8.1 1.3 78.9 69.3 4.1 5.4 6.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 8.9 9.2 7.9 1.2 77.8 68.0 6.4 8.0 8.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.4 3.4 5.5 0.9 66.9 65.2 1.4 1.9 3.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 6.5 6.7 5.7 1.1 73.1 67.6 3.8 5.0 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 5.3 5.7 4.4 1.5 79.3 72.9 3.4 4.3 5.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 7.2 7.6 8.1 1.3 76.4 69.1 4.7 6.0 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 -0.5 -0.1 4.5 1.5 79.4 72.7 -2.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 7.0 7.3 6.3 1.2 75.8 68.2 4.6 6.1 6.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 6.9 7.1 4.9 1.3 77.8 70.4 4.4 6.2 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 6.9 6.9 5.5 1.3 75.1 71.2 4.4 6.0 6.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 5.7 5.9 5.3 1.5 78.0 73.3 3.5 4.4 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 26 74 100 6.3 6.7 4.7 1.4 78.2 72.6 4.5 5.2 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 7.5 8.0 6.3 1.2 76.7 69.2 5.1 5.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 7.5 7.4 6.0 0.9 68.5 64.8 5.9 6.5 7.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 7.4 7.7 5.2 1.4 74.8 71.7 5.5 6.2 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 7.1 7.4 7.9 1.4 77.8 69.4 5.0 6.4 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 5.2 5.5 4.4 1.4 77.3 70.7 2.7 3.8 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 7.4 8.0 8.0 1.3 79.6 69.6 4.3 6.1 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 2.8 3.5 2.9 1.6 79.8 72.8 0.2 1.0 1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.2 7.5 7.2 1.1 73.8 66.2 4.4 6.1 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 6.6 6.9 7.8 1.3 78.4 69.3 4.3 5.5 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 7.0 7.5 7.6 1.3 79.6 70.1 4.0 5.6 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 7.0 7.5 6.1 1.3 77.3 69.5 4.3 5.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 7.0 7.2 6.3 0.9 66.5 63.2 4.2 6.2 7.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 5.9 6.2 4.9 1.4 76.0 71.3 4.0 5.1 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 7.4 7.2 7.2 1.0 68.7 64.5 4.8 6.6 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 5.9 5.9 5.9 1.1 70.7 67.0 4.0 5.3 5.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 25 75 100 3.7 4.2 3.9 1.5 78.0 72.0 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 7.3 7.8 8.2 1.3 77.6 68.8 4.8 6.1 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------