***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 03.04.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.04.2014.-13.04.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 6.1 7.4 6.8 1.3 67.1 65.3 5.0 5.8 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 7.1 7.5 7.0 1.8 77.0 72.8 4.9 5.6 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 9.0 9.5 6.7 1.4 70.0 67.3 6.2 7.7 8.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 3.3 4.2 4.2 1.2 68.3 66.0 0.3 1.6 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 6.0 6.8 4.9 1.4 73.9 68.8 3.8 4.7 5.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 5.3 5.8 3.2 1.8 81.5 75.8 2.8 4.1 4.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 23 77 100 7.7 8.3 7.1 1.9 78.4 74.4 4.9 5.9 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 0.0 0.2 2.9 1.4 71.6 68.8 -2.7 -1.8 -0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 6.8 7.6 5.4 1.4 76.0 70.2 4.3 5.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.9 3.7 1.3 72.3 67.7 4.4 5.6 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.8 4.3 1.2 69.6 66.4 4.2 5.2 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.1 3.5 1.2 71.3 68.1 2.9 4.2 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 6.2 6.8 3.8 1.7 78.2 74.8 4.0 4.9 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 7.3 7.8 5.5 1.6 77.6 72.7 5.1 5.8 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 6.1 7.4 5.3 1.0 67.8 64.8 5.1 5.7 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 7.3 8.0 4.2 1.5 78.4 71.8 4.8 6.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 7.4 7.9 6.9 2.0 82.1 75.9 4.6 6.1 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 4.7 5.1 3.0 1.4 74.4 68.7 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 7.2 7.7 6.8 1.7 75.7 71.7 4.7 5.4 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 2.0 2.3 1.4 1.8 78.0 73.8 0.0 0.9 1.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 5.7 7.5 6.3 1.3 70.8 67.3 4.3 5.4 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 6.5 7.1 6.8 1.9 81.0 74.3 4.3 5.6 6.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 6.6 7.1 6.5 1.6 75.7 71.7 4.0 5.4 6.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.5 6.9 5.0 1.4 74.7 69.6 4.2 5.6 6.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 6.3 6.6 5.5 1.1 64.8 62.5 4.5 6.1 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 5.7 6.1 3.7 1.9 79.2 74.9 3.7 4.9 5.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 6.1 8.0 6.2 1.2 66.6 64.5 4.9 5.7 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 5.5 5.3 4.8 1.2 72.7 68.0 2.9 4.4 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 3.9 4.6 2.6 1.6 75.9 71.9 1.1 2.3 4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 33 67 100 7.7 8.1 7.1 1.6 74.0 71.0 5.0 6.1 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------