***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 31.4 29.8 42.9 73.5 27.5 33.1 35.4 40.2 61.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 24.9 26.7 37.4 74.1 32.4 34.2 26.8 36.8 49.0 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 35.8 34.1 40.3 70.5 27.0 30.9 36.0 52.3 58.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 49.7 51.2 48.6 73.4 29.4 33.7 52.8 68.5 73.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 33.5 35.1 45.7 71.0 25.7 31.2 39.7 51.2 65.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 37.3 34.7 53.3 76.7 28.2 33.6 40.6 48.9 58.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 20.8 19.9 37.8 74.5 30.5 34.4 20.9 34.8 45.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 66.8 66.2 50.0 72.9 28.0 31.5 66.8 81.2 95.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 32.1 31.1 45.7 70.2 25.7 30.8 37.9 51.3 57.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 41.5 41.2 52.2 72.9 27.7 31.9 43.2 57.9 66.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 36.9 37.3 44.9 71.3 25.7 31.5 42.7 54.6 62.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 37.2 36.2 43.5 71.4 26.2 30.8 39.6 52.3 59.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 44.6 42.1 48.8 71.4 24.3 30.1 45.8 54.4 60.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 46.5 50.5 54.5 75.1 30.2 33.2 50.8 57.3 67.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 34.1 39.2 42.4 70.7 33.1 33.9 39.2 48.3 54.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 38.9 38.4 46.7 72.5 27.0 31.6 43.4 56.8 67.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 27.4 31.0 37.2 76.0 34.6 35.8 30.7 36.9 41.7 30 Palic 37000G16 69 31 0 100 38.5 43.7 55.2 74.8 28.6 32.6 45.3 55.3 67.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 32.6 32.0 37.8 72.7 31.4 33.4 32.2 44.4 50.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 71 29 0 100 31.2 33.5 56.1 74.0 26.6 31.2 37.6 45.2 68.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 26.9 32.5 44.2 71.7 26.9 31.6 36.9 45.6 58.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 28.8 34.5 39.7 77.4 35.8 36.9 33.9 42.3 48.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 74 26 0 100 28.9 32.8 39.7 71.5 28.9 32.4 37.0 42.5 52.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 36.7 45.6 49.4 72.6 27.9 32.1 46.3 51.8 61.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 33.6 33.9 48.7 72.9 28.5 33.1 37.1 47.3 66.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 32.9 34.6 45.0 71.8 26.2 31.5 38.0 46.8 58.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 66 34 0 100 33.5 32.2 45.4 72.6 27.5 32.9 33.4 45.5 56.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 33.1 34.7 46.2 72.9 31.7 33.6 35.1 48.6 63.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 51.3 60.3 56.3 75.6 29.7 32.9 62.9 68.6 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 24.4 29.2 38.6 73.5 30.4 33.3 29.9 35.9 51.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------