***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.04.2020.-26.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 7.9 16.9 15.6 106.0 60.6 51.8 5.5 14.1 18.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 3.2 10.9 14.4 117.5 66.1 52.8 3.2 7.2 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.2 14.8 103.1 59.2 51.1 5.9 9.4 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.5 16.4 18.0 108.1 62.5 54.3 8.1 11.1 17.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 4.7 11.8 16.4 101.8 59.7 51.9 4.8 8.6 14.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.7 13.4 20.7 113.2 66.9 55.5 3.8 9.8 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 3.8 9.5 14.7 117.5 65.7 53.1 3.9 6.7 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 19.3 25.5 18.1 107.0 63.6 54.4 10.0 14.4 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 4.2 9.5 16.3 98.0 58.6 50.5 5.5 9.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.5 14.4 18.9 104.7 61.3 52.8 6.1 10.4 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.5 12.3 16.3 105.3 62.4 52.8 5.3 8.5 13.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 12.5 15.2 16.1 107.0 63.2 54.0 7.3 9.4 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 5.3 15.8 19.6 115.9 64.8 55.8 4.3 9.0 16.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.2 19.2 107.5 60.1 51.6 6.0 9.1 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.5 10.6 16.1 103.1 63.3 52.5 2.5 6.0 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.8 14.1 18.0 112.3 62.9 54.6 4.5 8.5 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.3 12.7 14.4 120.0 66.3 52.2 4.4 6.4 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 17.4 17.3 19.9 106.7 62.6 53.4 6.8 13.8 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 3.6 14.5 14.2 112.6 64.3 51.8 3.0 6.9 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 12.7 13.7 20.1 106.6 61.4 55.2 4.7 10.4 14.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.8 10.1 16.0 103.2 59.8 51.3 3.5 7.5 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.8 15.0 119.5 66.1 52.0 4.0 7.7 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.7 14.3 105.0 59.6 50.4 2.7 6.0 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.8 14.9 17.7 104.6 61.9 51.4 4.8 9.2 18.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 5.5 12.4 17.6 107.0 62.1 52.6 5.2 8.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.4 17.5 111.9 64.7 56.6 2.4 8.1 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.6 12.9 16.2 103.9 60.6 51.4 3.8 8.1 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.3 13.8 17.4 106.4 63.2 53.7 4.6 7.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 18.6 20.1 20.7 111.1 64.1 55.7 7.7 15.2 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.9 11.5 14.8 114.4 64.7 52.4 4.1 8.4 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------