***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.04.2020.-19.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.9 10.8 14.5 98.8 52.7 46.4 7.5 10.7 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.9 10.2 12.6 95.4 52.6 45.8 5.6 9.4 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.5 15.0 13.9 93.8 52.7 46.0 11.3 13.9 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 13.3 20.1 15.2 90.1 54.0 46.2 14.2 19.6 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.0 15.6 14.8 91.0 53.5 45.8 10.9 14.8 21.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 15.0 11.1 15.7 93.1 53.1 47.9 7.4 10.8 21.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.6 11.1 12.7 94.3 53.2 45.6 4.9 10.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 28.5 27.3 15.5 91.8 53.8 48.5 19.4 25.9 28.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 8.0 15.8 14.9 89.3 53.6 45.8 8.8 14.8 20.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 19.8 19.1 16.5 94.1 53.4 48.5 12.2 18.0 21.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 8.3 17.4 14.6 89.0 52.1 46.2 10.5 16.9 22.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.1 14.8 13.3 86.2 52.3 46.2 8.2 13.8 20.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 22.7 19.7 14.4 88.6 51.1 46.7 12.3 19.6 23.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 11.8 20.2 18.6 102.5 59.3 49.1 14.2 18.1 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 8.7 15.5 13.5 86.4 57.5 46.4 9.0 14.3 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 8.5 15.8 14.4 88.6 52.2 46.0 9.4 15.1 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.4 10.5 11.9 90.7 51.7 44.8 5.3 10.3 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 17.7 97.9 56.9 49.7 10.3 14.6 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 6.2 11.4 13.0 96.7 54.5 46.7 6.4 10.6 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 11.8 17.7 93.8 54.6 48.0 8.7 10.5 15.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 10.2 15.9 14.3 89.3 51.0 44.9 9.4 15.4 25.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 5.8 12.4 12.8 97.9 56.9 47.1 6.8 11.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.3 15.4 14.2 98.1 57.1 48.2 7.8 12.1 19.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 9.8 19.2 16.9 98.6 58.1 48.4 9.7 14.6 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 9.7 16.9 15.6 90.8 51.7 45.1 7.8 16.3 23.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 7.9 12.3 13.3 83.7 49.0 44.1 4.9 13.0 20.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 8.1 14.7 15.3 95.5 53.4 45.4 8.8 13.6 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 7.4 18.0 14.5 91.6 57.2 47.8 6.9 11.4 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.7 22.7 18.1 96.7 57.0 48.8 13.1 20.0 26.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.1 12.6 13.3 97.4 54.4 46.4 5.0 11.4 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------