***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-12.04.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 93 7 0 100 2.9 0.5 1.5 11.0 7.0 7.1 5.4 8.7 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.5 13.3 11.8 10.1 3.0 7.4 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 93 7 0 100 2.2 0.4 1.6 12.1 9.4 8.6 6.3 9.3 14.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 1.8 0.1 2.0 12.7 5.9 7.1 8.5 17.2 21.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 94 6 0 100 2.5 0.0 2.1 12.9 6.4 6.9 4.8 9.7 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 0.7 0.1 1.8 10.5 4.4 4.9 3.2 7.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 1.0 0.4 1.3 12.4 11.9 9.2 1.9 3.6 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 5.6 0.4 2.9 16.0 5.3 7.0 10.0 18.4 22.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 94 6 0 100 2.7 0.2 2.3 15.1 7.8 8.1 5.0 9.4 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 94 6 0 100 4.2 1.3 3.0 16.8 7.0 7.9 8.0 12.0 16.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 1.4 0.3 2.1 12.8 5.6 6.5 4.9 7.4 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 96 4 0 100 0.7 0.0 2.1 13.4 4.1 6.4 3.0 8.9 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 0.8 0.0 1.6 8.8 2.8 4.0 3.8 7.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 91 9 0 100 3.7 1.6 2.9 17.8 13.7 11.1 9.7 16.9 20.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 0.9 0.0 1.7 12.3 9.9 8.9 1.5 7.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.8 0.0 1.8 11.1 3.9 5.6 3.5 8.5 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 87 13 0 100 1.5 0.6 1.5 15.3 12.9 11.2 3.3 4.8 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 4.4 1.3 3.0 16.9 6.7 7.9 5.7 11.3 16.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 2.6 0.9 1.6 13.5 11.8 10.0 5.8 9.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 2.4 0.6 2.8 15.0 4.9 6.0 6.1 9.3 11.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 93 7 0 100 1.4 0.1 1.9 13.5 8.1 8.0 5.3 8.3 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 91 9 0 100 2.1 1.0 1.5 14.5 13.7 11.1 6.0 8.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 2.3 1.1 1.8 14.8 13.8 10.6 6.7 10.1 16.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 93 7 0 100 2.9 0.1 2.5 15.5 9.8 9.1 8.0 10.8 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 2.6 0.3 1.7 10.6 5.7 6.1 6.4 8.9 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 99 1 0 100 0.1 0.0 1.8 11.5 4.8 5.5 3.5 8.4 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 1.6 0.3 1.5 10.3 6.6 6.4 6.0 9.8 12.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 1.9 0.0 2.0 12.7 6.6 7.8 3.1 10.3 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 96 4 0 100 6.1 3.1 2.9 15.9 7.1 7.5 8.9 13.4 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 1.1 0.2 1.5 12.6 12.0 9.6 3.9 6.4 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------