***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.04.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.04.2020.-03.05.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 19.0 19.3 18.8 2.1 80.4 77.4 17.9 18.5 19.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 19.2 19.7 18.7 2.1 80.1 77.3 17.4 18.5 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.2 19.5 18.8 2.0 79.5 75.1 17.9 18.7 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 12.2 12.7 15.6 1.5 75.6 70.0 11.0 11.4 12.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 19.5 19.7 16.6 1.5 75.3 69.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 45 55 100 18.3 18.7 14.3 1.2 70.4 64.4 16.9 17.6 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 19.0 19.3 18.5 2.1 80.5 77.0 17.4 18.3 18.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 7.3 7.5 14.8 1.3 72.1 65.6 5.7 6.6 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 19.0 19.3 17.3 1.6 76.2 70.5 17.8 18.4 19.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 19.2 19.4 15.8 1.5 73.7 67.8 17.8 18.5 19.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 19.2 19.5 16.6 1.3 71.8 66.3 18.0 18.4 19.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 43 57 100 18.5 18.7 15.8 1.3 72.0 65.5 17.1 17.8 18.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 19.4 19.7 15.6 1.2 70.9 64.2 18.1 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 19.3 19.6 17.3 1.9 77.7 73.0 17.7 18.5 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 19.3 19.6 17.3 1.6 76.0 71.8 18.1 18.7 19.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 19.9 20.2 16.0 1.3 72.4 65.9 18.4 19.2 19.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 18.6 18.9 18.3 2.1 80.9 77.4 17.2 18.0 18.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 18.8 19.3 15.3 1.6 75.5 68.5 17.3 17.8 18.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 18.8 19.2 18.7 2.1 79.6 76.3 17.3 18.3 18.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 13.6 14.1 12.8 1.5 74.8 67.4 12.1 12.8 13.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 19.3 19.7 18.1 1.7 77.8 72.2 18.1 18.6 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 19.3 19.5 18.4 2.1 81.3 77.7 17.6 18.6 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.6 18.7 1.9 79.3 74.7 17.8 18.6 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 19.1 19.5 17.2 1.8 77.7 71.7 17.6 18.2 18.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 19.1 19.4 17.1 1.9 78.5 74.5 18.1 18.6 19.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 45 55 100 18.6 18.8 14.9 1.2 70.0 64.9 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 19.1 19.5 18.1 2.1 80.2 77.0 17.8 18.5 18.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 19.4 19.5 16.2 1.5 74.4 68.8 18.5 18.8 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 13.6 13.9 14.5 1.6 75.3 68.1 12.1 12.9 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 19.0 19.4 18.7 2.1 80.2 77.2 17.5 18.6 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------